Just getting started

A nasty week-long cold has me filled with delirious thoughts, so maybe that's why I'm picking the White Sox to win the A.L. Central Division in 2010.

The headache, fever and ticklish sinuses are combining with a few other strange notions--that Alex Rios is going have an epic 30 HR, 30 SB, 100 RBI year; that the Piranhas will give up more power-runs and score fewer of their own patented small-ball runs in their new park; and that the Sox will have not only the best starting rotation in the A.L. Central but also the best bullpen, while the Joe Nathan-less Twins bullpen struggles--to convince me that the Sox are destined for an 87-75 record and division crown.

That's exactly where I had them a month ago.

My delirium has its limits, of course, and though the Cubs were better than the Sox this spring (18-12-3 to the Sox' 12-17-5), and have emerged with some surprises--Tyler Colvin on the roster and Carlos Silva in the rotation--I still see them no better than 83-79. That's not bad, and a game or two better than I had them a month ago, but I don't think they have the horses to beat either the Cardinals or Brewers.

That might change if Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee play well and stay healthy all year, and if Carlos Zambrano doesn't implode, and if Colvin plays like a Rookie of the Year candidate, and if Alfonso Soriano excells batting sixth, and if Silva pitches better than he has in years, and if Carlos Marmol chills out, but that's a lot of ifs.

Barring a worsening of my own health, I'll be taking in the Sox opener with The Commish tomorrow afternoon at The Cell. Let's hope it's not a repeat of 2007. I don't like the Mark Buehrle-Grady Sizemore match-up, but aside from that, the Sox seem well-poised to get off to a string start.

Peeved about Peavy?

Take what you want from spring training. I tend to write off poor performances by veteran pitchers, who seem like they are just trying to work on control more than anything else, and veteran hitters, who seem to work more on honing their timing and their sense of the strike zone.

It's a little surprising that a lot of people are worried about the White Sox' new ace Jake Peavy. I do think Peavy may have some difficulty initially with homerun balls at the Cell, but only relatively speaking for a guy who has been otherwise extremely hard to hit over his career. In any case, I expect the notoriously tough competitor to adjust very quickly by pitching certain types of power hitters different than he might have in San Diego's big Petco Park.

I'm not worried at all that Peavy lost a game to the Charlotte crew yesterday because he actually did well--seven strikeouts in just four innings and no walks. The three earned runs in that stretch are about as bad as it gets for Peavy, and something the Sox line-up should be able to overcome.

Millar time? Guess not...

On the surface, Kevin Millar's release from the Cubs yesterday might be read as the Cubs arguing against the theory that a good-vibe clubhouse guy can change everything for the team. However, Millar's recent career stats and current age, plus Chad Tracy's relative youth, power potential, natural third base abilities and left-handed bat are difficult to ignore.

Tracy is the obvious choice, and though most of us (Millar included) were surprised when the Cubs chose Tracy over Millar yesterday, in retrospect Millar would have had to hit .350 (he hit .242), pound a few homers and make a couple eye-catching defensive plays at third this spring just to even the battle. That's how big and bright Millar's reputation and personality are--he made us overlook the obvious for a while, and it was kinda fun.

Of course, organizationally-speaking, it would have been easy to give Millar a brief shot at the beginning of the season to see if he had some curse-busting magic left. The Cubs could have simply sent Tracy down for a bit, ready to call up at the first sign of Millar not cutting it or the inevitable Aramis Ramirez injury. Let's hope the rest of the Cubs can manufacture their own good vibes this year, unlike 2009.

Demp dominates

Ryan Dempster has looked good this spring for the Cubs, though never better than Sunday, when he struck out nine in seven shutout innings. Carlos Zambrano has been grabbing headlines over his weight loss and new supposedly serious attitude, and Ted Lilly's injury has been a major concern, but in the middle of it all Dempster has looked fantastic this month and could put together another season like 2008, when he went 17-6.

Also, Tyler Colvin did end up making the team. He leads the Cubs this spring with a .468 average and 13 RBIs. Which one of our outfield vets will pay the price in bench time?

And, finally, Andres Blanco is no longer a Cub, having been shipped to the Rangers. So... Mike Fontenot had better be for real this year.

The Sox lost two split squad games Sunday, though the upside was that Gavin Floyd pitched well in a 5-0 loss to Texas, going six innings with six strikeouts and two earned runs; and bullpen brothers Scott Linebrink, Matt Thornton and J.J. Putz each pitched a scoreless inning in a 10-8 loss to Kansas City.

Colvin makes it interesting

Several reports today suggest that versatile Cubs OF Tyler Colvin could make the Opening Day roster. The way he's been hitting--leading the Cactus League in hits, whatever that's worth--he deserves consideration above Sam Fuld, Micah Haffpauir and others.

It remains to be seen how much playing time he'll get. It's been suggested that Alfonso Soriano could lose at-bats, but as much as I think Soriano has crippled the Cubs at times in the past, he has looked good this spring and I doubt Lou Piniella will take him out much unless he obviously slumps from the start of the season.

Right now, I wonder if it's more likely that Kosuke Fukudome could be the one on the short leash. He started slow this spring, though has picked it up the last few games. Colvin replacing Fukie still gives you a lefty hitting second, and for now at least, one with a bit more pop in his bat and probably more speed. One big difference, however, us that Fukudome is showing his typical plate patience this spring with seven walks in 13 games. Colvin has none in 17 games, though you could argue that you need to swing and hit to get noticed in spring training, rather than take pitches. Hopefully, Colvin would be more selective when the games start counting.

In any case, Fukudome could keep his job and playing time by starting hot, which he has done in the past. If Soriano and Fukudome both start well, then Colvin could be back in the minors before too long, but that also would means the Cubs are doing well, right?

Spring cleaning

The Cub and White Sox have both been doing some spring cleaning the last few days as they work their rosters down. There are also a few players who have strengthened their chances to win roster spots or starting jobs.

--Starlin Castro turns 20 this week, but won't be celebrating as a major leaguer. He was sent to Iowa, a bit early for my tastes, even though Ryan Theriot has been the best-hitting Cub this spring and it looked unlikely Castro would usurp his starting role. The veteran infielders--not only Theriot, but also Mike Fontenot and Jeff Baker--seemed to take the competition from Castro seriously. I'm betting Castro will be up before the All-Star if an injury or slump calls for another infielder.

--Brad Snyder was sent down, too. Unexpectedly, Justin Berg and Esmailin Caridad look like they will be in Chicago come April.

--I'll bet on Kevin Millar and Tyler Colvin to make the Cubs roster, and Chad Tracy and Sam Fuld to fall short.

--Carlos Silva suddenly is pitching well.

--Old news at this point, but from White Sox camp, 2009 spring training stars Dayan Viciedo and Jeff Marquez have gone to the minors.

--Daniel Cabrera, late of the Orioles, the guy who entices with a rocket arm but frustrates with terrible control, has been released. I thought maybe Ron Cooper could bring something out of him that the Orioles couldn't, but in any case, a fairly insignificant loss for the Sox.

--Alex Rios has been looking better than he did late last season.

--Mark Teahen still isn't hitting. Maybe it's because he no longer faces White Sox pitching. I'm kidding... sort of. He will make the team regardless, but it would be nice to see him get going before Easter.

--Bobby Jenks had an MRI on his right calf, but says he'll be ready to go Opening Day.

How is it that the Cubs are suddenly looking better than the Sox? The Cubs are 11-7-1 this spring and seem to have found pitching depth despite having a key starter (Ted Lilly) and a top reliever (Angel Guzman) out of action. The Sox aren't hitting, the manager is annoyed and possibly distracted by a Twitter controversy and his son's resignation, the closer is not healthy and also seemingly annoyed... Should we re-think our expectations?

Don't Twitter it all away

The Sox have been looking poised for a great year. Sure Mark Teahen isn't hitting and Bobby Jenks has already unraveled, but the make-up of the team and the game-plan seem sound, and there's a depth of talent pretty much everywhere.

So, it's very disconcerting to see controversies over the burgeoning Guillen Social Media Empire become a distraction. We were already a little worried about the distractions that might be caused by Ozzie's Twitter account. Though most of his Tweets have been either Ozzie-hilarious or Ozzie-non-sensical and have stayed away from talk about the team, son Oney's Tweets apparently got him in trouble with GM Kenny Willams. As a result, Oney Guillen has left the organization, and Ozzie reportedly, predicatbly is pretty steamed.

This blow-up comes not long after Ozzie nixed a plan for a new baseball website, allegedly under pressure from top management. I'm not too worried about Ozzie losing focus during games because of whatever social media forays and investments he's made, and I can't blame him for being mad about Oney losing (or leaving) his job over a spat with Kenny. Meanwhile, the Sox organization seems a bit too sensitive about what people are saying on Twitter, especially when it doesn't appear to be anything about baseball matters.

Let's just play ball.

Is this all just a PR stunt to drive ratings for MLB Network's "The Club," which will largely focus on the Sox front office? We can only hope so, but somehow, I doubt it.

Vegas, baby

The Cubs and White Sox had another spring training tussle Friday night, this time at Cashman Field in Las Vegas. The Cubs came out on top 6-5.

These Vegas spring training games have always looked like a lot of fun. The crowds are always big, and the weather tends to be windy and cool on spring nights in Vegas, so the ball may sail. And then, well, you're in Vegas... I have always wanted to catch one of these games during frequent spring business trips to Vegas, but have always missed them by a day or two. I wonder if the players get to enjoy any of Sin City's temptations, or are held on a short leash.

The Vegas visit gave Sox manager Ozzie Guillen a chance to talk about his days playing for the Las Vegas Stars as a minor leaguer, and how he didn't lose any money at the tables.

Notable from the game: Cubs 3B Josh Vitters continued a good spring with a two-run-scoring triple. He's hitting .571. Mike Fontenot went 3-4, and continues to play like a man who desparately wants a job. Tom Gorzelanny looked wild at the start, but settled down. The Sox' Mark Teahen finally got a hit--who would have though Alex Rios would have two homers this spring before Teahen even got his first hit?

Say it's so, Joe

We don't wish injuries upon even our most hated foes, and Minnesota's Joe Nathan certainly qualifies. So, on a personal level, we're sad to hear there is a possibility the amazingly tough and consistent Piranhas closer may miss the entire 2010 season.

But, if it turns out that way (The Twins will know more in a couple weeks.), it could mean a few more losses for Minnesota, a couple more wins for the White Sox against the Twins--assuming they can't find a replacement with anywhere near Nathan's talent--and better chances for the Sox to win the Central Division.

On the Cubs beat, we hear that Xavier Nady will not be ready to play the outfield until June, though he will be able to pinch-hit from the start of the season. Sounds like the Cubs knew about this and were waiting to tell us. With the injury to Angel Guzman, the likelihood that Ted Lilly will not be aready until May and Nady's part-timer status, it's not looking like the Cubs will get off to a fast start.

Still, this math guy is predicting 86 wins for the Cubs (just 85 for the Sox), and he apparently is pretty good at this whole prediction business.

Not much else going on--apparently it's colder and rainier in Arizona these days than in Chicago.

Carlos vs. Carlos

The Cubs-Sox spring training re-match was postponed today due to rain, and I decided to take another look at yesterday's Sox victory. After watching Carlos Quentin belt two homers and drive in five runs off Carlos Silva, I'm wondering this: Is that a sign of Quentin's return to prominence, or a sign that Silva is even worse than some of us thought?

My money right now is on Quentin to have a pretty decent year, possibly another 30+ homer year, though it all depends on whether he can keep that injury bug at bay. The more time he spends at DH (where he hit yesterday) the better.

Silva, on the other hand, is vying for the same bottom-of-the-rotation starter job he had with Minnesota (before Seattle bought into the idea he could be something better). Yet, Silva so far doesn't even look that good. I think he can be useful for the Cubs, though not as a starter--probably more like a long reliever.

In other news, I was surprised to see Lou Piniella say this early in the spring that Starlin Castro probably would start the season in Triple A. he was moved to say that after Andres Blanco hurt his ankle yesterday, though the statement probably comes as better news to Ryan Theriot, who not only lost his arbitration case, but has been living with the speculation that Castro is challenging him for starts at shortstop. I think the Cubs should let Castro earn a job to open the season if he puts up the numbers.

Crosstown crushing

Try telling White Sox fans that spring training games don't mean anything. The Sox pounded the Cubs today 15-3 in their first spring match-up. The Cubs haven't looked good since the first game Thursday, a 9-3 win over Oakland, while the Sox looked their best thus far in this game.

Meanwhile, the Cubs got bad news about poor Angel Guzman, whose shoulder injury may be career threatening. Not sure if this opens a better chance for someone like Jeff Gray or what.

Jonesing for a comeback

Which Andruw Jones did the White Sox sign? The one that hit 51 homers one year and has won 10 gold gloves, or the fat, immature over-paid disappointment of the last few years? Jones reported to spring training early and a few pounds lighter, so maybe we can get more hopeful that his bid for a comeback with the Sox is for real.

At the very least, the Sox need him to do deliver some right-handed punch as part of a two-headed (or at times perhaps three-headed) DH. If they can get a slick fielder with some rediscovered endurance, all the better, since questions surround outfielders Alex Rios and Carlos Quentin.

If everything goes right, maybe Jones could be the same sort of extremely pleasant surprise Carlos Quentin was two years ago, when the Sox weren't expecting much but instead got 36 homers.

And so it begins...

The Cubs' pitchers and catchers reported to spring training yesterday, though it sounds like a lot of player are there already and have been for several days. Sounds good to me. Guys like Carlos Zambrano and Geovany Soto are in better shape, and everyone sounds rested and committed.

It's hard to invest too much in the 2010 team, and Lou Piniella sounds no more happy and exuberant than he ever has, but who knows? I'm still looking at this year's club like a probable third-place, worst-case fourth-place team, but with a winning record. Could second-place be too much to dream? Let's stop there.

Bronx bombed; Snow show?

The Cubs are winless at the new Yankee Stadium. Of course, their record there is only 0-2, and the games don't actually count yet, but today's 10-1 loss came as close as you could get to actually counting, since it was the final pre-season tune-up for Monday night's opener in Houston.

Rich Harden looked pretty awful, pitching only 3.2 innings, giving up 7 earned runs, 3 HRs and 4 BBs while striking out 2. He'll have another 10 days or so to fix whatever went wrong before his next start, though when Harden doesn't pitch well, it's hard not to think the worst.

The Cubs looked pretty sluggish in both games at the new stadium, scoring early Friday night and then fading to a 7-4 loss in which it was Ted Lilly's turn to give away runs. In today's game, former Yankee Alfonso Soriano looked pretty swell, hitting a HR and going 3-4. He has generally looked better as spring has sprung, which can't be said for several of his mates. In both of these games, the Cubs seemed to be soaking in (and literally soaking) the new Yankee digs more than anything.

We're looking forward to Monday night anyway, and the hope that Carlos Zambrano remembers whatever he was doing so right when he no-hit Houston last September.

Meanwhile, we're also looking forward to Monday afternoon, when SBW will be heading down to the Cell for the White Sox opener. But, will there be baseball? Snow has been forecast for that morning, with driving winds and temps in the low 30s around mid-day. Ouch.

I love our teams, but they need to open on the road every year and stay away from home until mid-to-late April--it just means more home games later, right? My pal The Commish and I have been to many a Southside inaugural, and have had our share of good and bad weather. One year, we had a 70-degree day for the opener sandwiched between two much colder days. Then in 2006, we barely got to see the World Series Championship banners get hung before the game was delayed by drenching rains.

Maybe Mother Nature will cut us a little slack, but it doesn't look good. If they do start Monday, at least it might be quick: No. 56 will be on the mound setting his typically brisk pace.

Closing thoughts on spring

I just watched my two favorite teams go head-to-head, with the Cubs beating the White Sox 9-4. The Cubs took three out of four from the Sox this spring, though of course, these things must be kept in perspective during spring training.

There were arguably three things notable about the game: First, it was Kosuke Fukudome's first game with the Cubs after his stint with WBC repeat champs Japan. He did not do much in the WBC, and though reports out of Arizona yesterday made it sound like he is better conditioned and in a better mood than he seemed to be last year, at the plate he looked roughly like the Fukie of around early July last year: Not like he could do whatever he wanted, but also not completely lost. He did go 1-4 and scored a run.

The second and third notable items have to do with closers. Bobby Jenks again pitched a scoreless inning for the Sox, which I think brings him to 7 IP this spring with a 0.00 ERA (I added his inning today to the stats in the link--MLB.com only had the stats updated through yesterday). He's been looking generally better with each appearance. His hits given up--6, I think (accurate spring stats are sometime hard to come by)--and walks--at least 4--do not engender a great deal of confidence, but seems to stick to the story of Bobby's recent career trend of starting trouble, but ending it before damage is done.

The final notable item is a noteworthy absence. With Lou Piniella about to decide his closer (it may be happening as I write this, so I'll follow up later), there was an expectation we would see shaky Carlos Marmol pitch both yesterday and today. He did pitch yesterday, but not today, and it wouldn't be much of a stretch to suggest that Lou made up his mind after seeing Marmol blow a save in yesterday's shortened game against the Giants, giving up a 2-run double to former (and forever) member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox, Aaron Rowand.

It was the latest in a string of troubling outings for Marmol, who had hit 5 batters and given up 6 hits in 8 IP since coming back to the Cubs after the WBC, even while striking out 10 and walking 1. Then there was the WBC fiasco: Marmol couldn't decide whether or not to pitch in the WBC, and then went and gave up the game-losing run that knocked his Dominican Republic team out of the tournament. The indecision itself was the latest thing that made me wonder about Marmol, even before he came back to the Cubs and posted a 4.50 ERA in a handful of outings. Indecision = lack of confidence, a closer's worst nightmare.

So, I'm fully expecting Lou to name Kevin Gregg the closer. Gregg has had a brilliant spring (Here's the Marmol-Gregg comparison through yesterday), though he was not used in any actual save situations this spring (Marmol at least had one save opp, yesterday's blown chance). Save opportunities, though, are pretty hard to come by in the spring, when teams are scoring 16 runs a game with regularity. Still, Gregg has had 0.00 ERA in 8.1 IP, 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Gregg as the closer is not a bad thing, though it makes me wish again that the Cubs had just kept Kerry Wood and kept Marmol firmly entrenched as the set-up man. You have to wonder now if Marmol's implosion this spring will lead some shakiness when the games really matter.

Just getting started

I have been false-starting posts all winter as the Cubs and White Sox made and failed to make various moves, but every time I did, something derailed me, whether it was actual paying work, the mediocrity of the Bulls and the Bears (both the Wall Street version and the football verson)demanding my attention, or my newest obsession, a little column called Fantasy Fix, over at The Beachwood Reporter.

But, finally, someone is prodding me about getting started, and maybe that's all I needed.

There is too much ground to cover in one sitting, so let's begin by looking back at some fun we had last fall trying to predict the Sox and Cubs line-ups for this spring. In both cases, we assumed too many off-season moves. Not that we expected the moves to really happen, but as a fan, I guess you always hope for more off-season business than actually gets done.

Let's start with the Sox, and pick up the Cubs in the next post. Here's what we described back in November as a likely version of the Sox line-up:

CF Taveras
SS Ramirez
LF Quentin
DH Thome
RF Dye
1B Konerko
C A.J.
2B Getz
3B Fields or Uribe

So, we didn't get Willy Taveras, who ended up in Cincinnati. Uribe, who had managed to stick around like a barnacle, is gone. Everyone else is in play. The most interesting conundrums are at second base and third base. At second, there's Getz, but also Jayson Nix, Brent Lillibridge, Wilson Betemit, even the awesomely powerful Gordon Beckham, who would move from his natural shortstop position. At third, Betemit and Dayan Viciedo are in the mix with Fields.

I like Beckham's and Viciedo's to make the opening day roster, but I don't know if both of them can. Maybe neither will. Beckham has been impressive but may just be getting a long look. He's been both patient and aggressive at the plate, though Ozzie still seems uncommitted. Viciedo is getting every chance to become another Cuban Missile, but seems one-dimensional so far--albeit that one dimension is a nice power stroke.

The outfield hasn't changed much, as Jerry Owens and DeWayne Wise probably will stick around, and challenge Brian Anderson in center field. CF is still a question mark for the Sox, but the question seems to become less emphatic each passing season that Anderson, Owens and whatever other speedster du jour is on the roster (now Wise) show up for spring training. Still, I really would have liked Taveras to be the answer.

Among pitchers, Jose Contreras surprisingly is still around and looking good this pring, and new signee Bartolo Colon introduces some interesting options, but the Sox will of course have to watch him closely. Clayton Richard, Jeff Marquez and Lance Broadway are getting a chance.

With all that in mind, here's my new look at the 2009 line-up and starters:

CF Owens
SS Ramirez
LF Quentin
DH Thome
RF Dye
C A.J.
1B Konerko
3B Fields
2B Getz

SP Buehrle
SP Floyd
SP Danks
SP Contreras
SP Richard

RP Marquez
RP Colon
RP Jenks
RP Linebrink
RP Dotel
RP Thornton
RP Broadway

I like Owens to beat out Anderson in CF. I think despite appearances, 2B is Getz' job to lose, and that the Sox don't want to rush Beckham to the majors even if he's fantastic. Same with Viciedo. Fields was terrible during spring training 2008, but has been better this spring.

Among SPs, there are thorny decisions to be made. Three lefties starting? Also, Contreras was not expected to be a factor, and I think the Sox can't write off the World Series vet quite yet. I think Colon could make the roster as a project, maybe even starting out on the disabled list. Marquez has been good so far, and perhaps could still take a starter job that otherwise looks like it belongs to Richard. I think Aaron Poreda is bound for the farm, but will be on speed dial. Same with Carrasco.

So, how will these regulars do? Can they do their half of the job in trying to bring us our dream of a Windy City World Series? We admit last year may have been the rare time when that looked possible for a while. This year, the A.L. Central could really tighten up. The Sox proved last year that you can never count them out, even if you have to extend the season.

This year, I see some fading punch in this line-up, starting pitching with potential, some speed and good defense on the bench, and a bullpen with an increasingly shaky closer and a few other live arms. I think the Sox are good for second place, maybe 86-76, with a shot at first if Cleveland isn't good enough, the Twins are no better, and Detroit and Kansas City fall short in their seeming improvement. No Game 163 this year, for better or worse, and no chance at a Wild Card, which is permanently attached to the American League East.