This year's Baseball Prospectus says the Cubs will finish 79-83 in 2nd place to the Cardinals, while the White Sox finish 80-82--but in a three-way tie for first place. Still, the Sox only have a 27 percent chance of making the play-offs.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs prediction ends up pretty close, though for now, I'll stick to something more like 82-80 or 81-81, still only good for second place. The Sox, however, look like a winning club to me. I think they've got a decent chance to win their division, and while Minnesota and Detroit will be neck-and-neck with them all the way, I think having the second-best pitching staff in the A.L. from top to bottom (after Boston) will provide the edge over the Twins' sub-par pitching and the Tigers' half-lame line-up.
I'm going to guess 87-75 for the Sox and first place all to themselves, though I expect a trading deadline deal for a dedicated DH to help them get to that number. Once they reach the play-offs, we'll see...
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