Weekend update

After their first weekend of play for the 2010 season, both are teams are 2-4, with line-ups on both sides of town still struggling mightily. The White Sox actually did manage five runs Sunday, the most either team has managed since the Cubs scored five in a hopeless effort back on Opening Day.

The Sox got a nice surprise from Andruw Jones Sunday in the form of an eighth inning game-winning hit that kept them from losing their fifth in a row and getting swept by the Piranhas. Paul Konerko had a two-run homer to continue his tear, and the Sox got solo shots from Mark Kotsay (finally make Ozzie look good for sticking with him) and Gordon Beckham, but Jones' pinch-hit single may have been the brightest moment for this team since Game 1.

Mark Buehrle also was good enough in holding the Twins to four runs over eight innings, keeping a somewhat taxed bullpen off the field.

The win came after a frustrating 2-1 Saturday loss in which a gutsy performance by Freddy Garcia's was wasted. The Sox had a number of scoring chances, but couldn't manage timely hits, and all the recent talk of aggressive base-running backfired at one point when Alex Rios, after his lead-off double, was doubled off of second on a fly ball out.

The Sox head north for a series in Toronto early this week, and it seems unlikely they will find their hitting touch in a dome (damn domes...), but at least they won't have to face Roy Halladay anymore.

The Cubs really should have won all three games in Cincinnati, yet they leave losing two out of three, and when they don't get sabotaged by their own bullpen, they can always count on Alfonso Soriano's clumsy fielding to do the job. On Sunday, Soriano's fumbling of a catchable fly ball in the seventh inning--while not extending the inning, since it would only have been the second out--changed the karma of a game in which Tom Gorzelanny had pitched very well.

After Soriano's error, and with the bases now loaded, Lou Piniella decided to take his anger out on Gorzelanny, removing the lefty for... another lefty, Sean Marshall. Still, Marshall has been dominant this past week, and we've been hoping he'd get the call more often, so the change wasn't a complete surprise. In any case, the karma had changed for the Cubs, and what we got next was a pure bad luck play in which a possible double-play grounder deflected off Marshall's glove and brought in the tying run.

The Reds scored two runs an inning later, and three runs is just too much for this Cubs team. The Cubs didn't do much hitting against rookie starter Mike Leake, with Kosuke Fukudome collecting three of the Cubs' five hits, but they didn't need to, as Leake awarded them seven walks. Still, except for an RBI single by Derrek Lee, the Cubs did nothing with the free runners. The worst was a waste of a bases-loaded, no-outs situation in the first inning. So maybe a little of the bad karma was there from the beginning.

Saturday featured the Cubs' second win of the season and a nicely modulated performance by Carlos Zambrano, who fell behind early 3-0, but didn't implode, and kept the Cubs in the game until homers by Soriano, Fukudome and Jeff Baker brought them a 4-3 lead. Carlos Marmol was at his unhittable best un the ninth for the save, but Zambrano was most impressive. With the obvious exception of his no-hitter in 2008, I've rarely seen get tougher to hit and more calm as a game has gone on. It was an especially nice recovery after his Opening Day horror show.

Home opener for the Cubs tomorrow against the Brew Crew.

Sox out of it, Cubs still alive

A few days ago, I wouldn't have believed you if you told me the White Sox would be mathematically eliminated from winning the A.L. Central Division before the Cubs would be mathematically eliminated from winning the N.L. Central Division. (I know they have both essentialy been out of it for a while, but indulge me.)

A lot of us were looking ahead to 6 remaining games against Detroit for the Sox, with the assumption they first would take at least 2 of 3 from the visiting Twins (who of course would be haunted by their late-season failure against the Sox last year) and Detroit would continue to stumble their way into the Windy City this weekend.

Instead, the Sox were swept by Minnesota and Detroit kept winning through last night, officially eliminating the Sox from contention (With 9 games left, they are also listed as 18 games out of the Wild Card, so...). Now, the Sox have to win all of their remaining games just to have a winning record this year. Ouch.

The Cubs, despite all their troubles and distractions, somehow still survive for at least one more day after posting an unlikely 3-2 win in San Francisco last night. How unlikely? They were down to their last strike, losing 2-1 (which of course means the Cardinals magic number of 1 was a strike away from dropping to 0), but Jeff Baker hit a 2-run homer to give them the lead and Carlos Marmol survived a shaky 9th inning (Get used to those last seven words, as you're likely to hear them a lot next year).

The Cubs also are 6.5 out of the Wild Card with 10 games left. If the Rockies go 2-7 in their own remaining 9 games, the still-contending Braves go 6-4 in their own remaining 10 games, and the still-contending Giants and Marlins each go 6-3 in their own remaining 9 games, well, the Cubs could have a shot at the Wild Card--they would only have to avoid losing for the rest of the season, finishing with an 11-game winning streak and 15 of 16 run. Do you believe in miracles?

Tired arms

Maybe Jose Contreras has the same problem as Kevin Gregg--a tired arm--and maybe like Gregg, he is not telling anyone about it, until it's too late. Contreras hasn't pitched many innings this year, but perhaps his age, whatever it might be, is finally getting to him.

Contreras didn't even make it to the 4th inning last night, walking 5 guys and hitting 1. The Sox won anyway, as thet eventually beat the tough LA Angels 5-4 in last-inning heroics by Scott Podsednik, who drove in Jayson Nix, who had doubled with 2 outs. But, Contreras' recent problems show Jake Peavy can't get well soon enough.

Meanwhile, the Cubs' solution for Gregg's tired arm, which cost them a win Sunday in Florida, is to use either Carlos Marmol, who got in trouble and then out of it (as is his way) on Monday when the Cubs beat the Reds 4-2, or Angel Guzman, who has shown mostly good stuff all year but gave up a 2-run homer in the 9th inning last night before closing out the Reds in a 6-3 victory.

I'm a bit worried about the whole Gregg situation because he is not a stranger to the DL. He is on a pace to give up more hits this year than in previous years, so he has been working hard for his saves, and he has shockingly given up 10 homers, the most of any NL reliever (though 3 of those came in his last 2 fated outings). Both Marmol and Guzman are too wild and emotional to close games on a regular basis, which leaves... newly-acquired John Grabow? Tom Gorzelanny, who pitched so well as a starter Tuesday? Sean Marshall? All 3 are lefties, but the Cubs suddenly have a surplus of southpaws that will only increase when Ted Lilly returns.

What about Ryan Dempster in a pinch?

B.J. and the baby bears

The Cubs have signed one-time superstar closer B.J. Ryan, according to the Chicago Tribune. More recently, Ryan has been a huge bust in Toronto, and was recently released. But, this looks like a low-risk move by the Cubs, landing a lefty with credentials who has only pitched in the American League thus far and could potentially do well against National Leaguers who haven't seen him.

Ryan is being sent to the Iowa Cubs, but I'll bet he gets to Wrigley before too long.

The Cubs have needed another southpaw and true bullpen-type pitcher (unlike Sean Marshall, whose good stuff and durable arm often goes to waste in short outings out of the pen). Signing Ryan also gives them some late-inning flexibility, particularly at a time when Carlos Marmol continues to amble along his strike-'em-out-or-walk-'em-in path.

Wells swell, but still winless

"I think I need to throw more strikes. The balls are killing me."--Carlos Marmol, in today's Chicago Tribune.

Carlos Marmol's balls may be killing him, but Randy Wells is the one in real pain.

Things were going all too well for Wells, even after he lost his no-hit bid in the 7th inning and gave up a solo homer to start the 8th. The Cubs were still ahead 5-1, and Wells was only around the 80-pitch mark. It was his game to win, it seemed.

Then, however, a Cubbie moment: Derrek Lee blew an easy catch at first base, allowing a runner aboard on an error. True Cubs fans had to know this uncharacteristic sort of blunder means things are about to go very, very wrong. The next thing to go wrong was ou Piniella yanking Wells after just 83 pitches right after the error.

This, of course, seems like a safe thing to do with a four-run lead in the 8th inning, but I'm still baffled, if only because Wells had made only one real mistake the whole game with the solo homer. The hit he gave up in the 7th was to Chipper Jones, one of the best in the business. He did not record an out after facing two batters in the 8th, but that wasn't his fault. Besides, Wells has done a great job in at least two recent starts pitching himself out of big jams with men on base, most recently against the Dodgers last week. And, he was really on last night. At least give him one more batter after Lee's botched play, to give him the chance to show whether or not he's had enough.

The only thing worse than yanking Wells too early is putting Carlos Marmol in with a man already on base. See, when, given his own inning to start, the wild, jittery Marmol likes to load the bases before settling down and working out it. If he starts with a man on base--well, you do the math. Marmol was a mess, walking in a run, hitting a guy--the usual. He left with the Cubs up 5-3 and less margin for error by cloer Kevin Gregg the following inning.

The next Cubbie moment was a dropped third strike. With one out in the bottom of the 9th and Gregg looking aggressive and effective, Garrett Anderson swung and missed a ball in the dirt. Geovany Soto missed it, too, and Anderson was on. One out later, Gregg faced hometown Atlanta boy Jeff Francouer, the Braves guy I would least like to see in that situation. I would have even rather seen Chipper, who is less likely to hurt you with a homerun. The hometown boy made good, leaving it 5-5 for three innings, during which the Cubs mostly waited for the Braves to figure out how to win.

In the end, it was Chipper driving a man home from second with one out and first base open. I believe the manager's handbook says to walk the career .311 hitter in that situation. That would have brought up another good hitter, catcher Brian McCann, but it also would have set up an easy inning-ended double play on almost any ground ball. Lou would have none of it, and that was that.

This game did have other bright spots besides Wells; swell and ultimately wasted effort. Alfonso Soriano ledd off the game with a homerun, and is now in second place for career homers leading off a game. D-Lee hit a rare homer, and had an all-around good day except for the untimely error.

Just another game at the beginning of June, I know and nothing to fret too much about. Just another lost opportunity, and hopefully, the Cubs won't finish one lost opportunity out of the postseason.

The-Riot delivers some chaos

"You can't quiet The-Riot."--Slogan on T-Shirt seen outside of Wrigley Field.

Other than the resurgence of Kosuke Fukudome and the more patient hitting of Alfonso Soriano, the one thing a slumping Cubs offense has been able to count on this year is Ryan Theriot, who always manages to get a hit or two.

Well, today he had the unexpectedly big hit, a grand slam that rallied the Cubs from a 5-2 deficit against the Marlins, and that re-awakened Wrigley fans from their grumpy drunkeness. It was Theriot's first career grand slam, and it could happen to a more deserving guy, who even when he's not hitting manages to force pitchers to burn their arms by going deep into counts.

The Cubs eventually won 8-6 in a game in which Rich Harden started poorly and only got worse, lasting 3.2 IP with 5 ERs and only 2 Ks against 4 BBs. There were a couple signs of resurgent offense in this one (though we thought that was the case the other night in Arizona, too--we'll see if it sticks). Most notably, beyond Theriot's blast and a couple of timely walks drawn by the Cubs, two slumping Cubs came alive, Derrek Lee was 2-4 and Geovany Soto was 2-3 with an RBI.

The bullpen was sufficient in this one, with closer Kevin Gregg yielding the only Marlins run after Harden left the game. Still, Carlos Marmol was shaky for the second straight game, walking 2 to open the 8th inning, but battling back to strikeout the side. Neal Cotts was pleasantly unsucky, giving up a walk but striking out 2 in his scoreless inning on the mound. Still, the bullpen walked 5 men total, which ain't good even if only one run scored in 5-1/3 of work.

Walking wounded

Carlos Marmol just left the Cubs-Cards game in the 8th inning with some kind of side injury, but not before he let the Cards take the lead 4-3 in a game the Cubs were struggling to keep themselves in already.

Marmol's exit came after Aramis Ramirez left earlier in the game with a calf strain apparently suffered while he was jogging gently into 2nd base on a gimme double. Seems like nothing but bad news since the Tuesday night win in which we noted some good omens. Maybe the Wrigley Field staffer grabbing the cat by the tail to remove it from the field actually set off a run of bad luck.

Oh, well, if the Cubs didn't have bad luck... they would have to change their name. They have lost two in a row and scored exactly 1 run in 27 innings until the 7th inning tonight and it took a can error and a double play to score 2 of their 3 runs tonight. They lost 7-1 to the Reds Thursday in a game I neither had time nor desire to comment on.

Lou made some big changes in the batting order tonight, but nothing much came of it. We'll take a closer look at that in an upcoming post. If you are counting the Cubs' walking wounded, the number stands at 3, including Milton Bradley, who apparent is not near coming back from a groin strain, and is not talking much to the media.

Although... this just in: Bradley is pinch-hitting right now with the Cubs down to their last out in the top of the 9th, so maybe he's ok enough to remain on PH duty. And... he just walked and is now getting a pinch-runner: Joey Gathright.

Meanwhile, the Sox are getting obliterated at home 12-0 by Toronto, after losing 6-2 in Baltimore Thursday night in a nother shaky game by Bartolo Colon. Tonight, it was Gavin Floyd's turn to be shaky, as he gave up 6 runs--5 ERs--in 4.1 IP. Jack Egbert, who came up from the minors to take the spot vacated by Mike MacDougal, gave up the other 6 runs in the span of 1 inning.

Both Thursday night and tonight the Sox got hits, but couldn't get anything together.

OK, the Cubs just lost 4-3 for a 3-game losing streak. The Sox are now losing 13-0 in the 7th, and I'm changing channels.

Good luck and lack thereof

A cat was seen skulking across the field during Tuesday night's Cubs-Reds game, but it wasn't a black cat. A fan was seen leaning over the left field side wall to catch a foul ball, but he wasn't wearing headphones and Moises Alou wasn't playing left field. So, we have no other recourse than to view these curiously familiar situations as good luck for the Cubs rather than bad.

The Cubs themselves may have been disinterested in omens of any kind, since they were busy cruising to a 7-2 victory behind 6-inning maestro Rich Harden. We may rarely see Harden go longer than the 6th inning, since that is usually about the time he closes in on 95 pitches and sets off the dugout alarm system that screams "PULL HIM! PULL HIM!" But, in most cases it's enough too make a huge impact, and he did last night, holding the Reds to 2 runs while striking out 8 batters. Interesting stat I saw on the MLB Network today: Harden currently has more strikeouts--34--in any 25 inning span to start a season than any other pitcher in baseball history. Not that it will mean much in the long run...

Most of the Cubs hitters did their jobs, drawing walks are getting hits off former Cub Micah Owings so that RBI-guru Aramis Ramirez could come up in his preferred situation with runners on base and get his fill: 3 RBIs last night on 3 hits, 14 RBIs now on the year. Micah Hoffpauir, who I am fast coming to prefer over Milton Bradley, had his first homer of the season (and the first Micah-on-Micah homerun in baseball history!) and added another RBI later on. Ryan Theriot stayed on pace for a 200-hit season with another multi-hit (2-4) game. Everything's rolling right now--except for Neal Cotts, of course, who started a relief appearance last night with strikeout, but quickly lost his bearings and let the next two batters on base. Rescuing Cotts is becoming a full-time job for Carlos Marmol, and he did it again last night, saving Cotts ERA by shutting down the would-be Reds rally.

Cotts, I think, will soon go the way of Mike MacDougal, the wild, unreliable reliever that the White Sox parted ways with before their Tuesday night game in Baltimore. MacDougal always appeared to have a nice arsenal of pitches and had been effective as the one-time closer in Kansas City, but his stay with the Sox was about 98% disappointing.

Still, the Sox could have used Mac for mop-up duty Tuesday night, as they got popped by the Orioles 10-3. Jose Contreras again took it on the chin, and has not been able to find his control since his promising early return from injury during spring training. Contreras had 6 BB and 6 ER in 5.1 IP. At 0-3, he's responsible for half the Sox losses this season.

He didn't get much help from the offense, which managed only 3 runs (2 of which were unearned after a Baltimore error) off a rookie pitcher, Brad Bergesen, who seemed to befuddle them. The only bright spot in this one, other than a reliable RBI each from Jermaine Dye and Paul Konerko, was that Alexei Ramirez went 2-4 for the second game in a row. He seems to be scratching his way out of his slump.

The Sox looked great in Tampa the weekend, but apparently left their bats in Florida. They haven't had much luck at all in Baltimore in recent years, though what does luck have to do with anything?

Almost instant karma

Lou Piniella says he was looking for a "change in karma" after his bullpen walked 3 batters in a row against the Milwaukee Brewers Saturday night, so he sent pitching coah Larry Rothschild out to change pitchers. Personally, I think Lou was just fuming and didn't want to tear off the head of Neal Cotts in fron of thousands of fans. During last week's extra-innings loss to the Astros and Friday night's bullpen meltdown against the Brewers, Lou could be seen on TV in the dugout mouthing some very recognizable bad words. Forget Sweet Lou--Sour Lou is out early this year.



The karma did not change instantly for the Cubs, as new pen arrival Aaron Heilman gave up a single after the 3 walks that put the Brewers up 5-3, but it did change an inning later. Aramis Ramirez hit a solo HR to bring the Cubs within a run in the 8th, and in the top of the 9th and down to 2 outs, Alfonso Soriano was the hero. Hit blasted (literally) a 2-run HR after Reed Johnson had pinched a single. Soriano was one possible goat after Friday's loss, but again seems to show you has value just at the time when you (or its was just me) are ready to question him. Al-So has come up big the first week of the season... maybe he should bat clean-up (as Milton Bradley is hitting .063 this far).



The Cubs won 6-5, and it wasn't twice-bitten closer Kevin Gregg who finished the game. Carlos Marmol got the save, giving up a single, but facing down the toughest Brewers hitters to end it. Apparently, Lou doesn't want to change the karma too much, because he said Gregg will be back in the closer role Sunday if needed.



Other notes: Kosuke Fukudome has been fairly torrid--or at least better than expected. He was 2-5 with a HR yesterday, and apparently loves hitting against the Brewers (It was his 4th HR off Brewers pitching since his heroic debut as a Cub on Opening Day 2008.) Also, Carlos Zambrano was pretty darn good for the second game in a row, though his effort was squandered by the pen's collapse.



White Sox update: The Sox had a karma change, too, in the form of a heavweight pitcher thought to be wobbling toward retirement until recently. Bartolo Colon had vintage stuff, blanking the Minnesota Piranhas for 7 innings (giving them nothing to chew on), on the way to an 8-0 victory (a Colon blow-out, if you will, though I know you'd rather not).


The Sox also were effective for the first time this year in simply pushing runner after runner across the plate. When the starting line-up flashed on the TV at the beginning of the game, it certainly didn't look like that's what would be in store: It featured 3 new starters (Brent Lillibridge, Corky Miller and Wilson Betemit) and 2 others (Alexei Ramirez and Brian Anderson) who were hitless for 2009--5 guys with .000 batting averages.

But, Colon's workman-like pitching and the new shaken-up batting order seemed to bring some new karma. Lillibridge, leading-off, didn't have a hit, but was decent anyway, walking twice, stealling a base and showing the rest of the team how to execute a sacrifice bunt. Ramirez, "The Missile," finally took flight with his first 2 hits and first 2 RBI of the season. Even Miller had 2 RBI. It's doubtful the Sox batting order will continue to have the same names in place as it did yesterday, but the rag-tag group somehow broke the team-wide hitting slump.

Opening Day: Hits and misses

Well, because the White Sox postponed (perhaps prematurely) their opener by one day, I am left on the bench, unable to make the trip down to the Southside because of a prior work commitment. It's the first time I will fail to report for a Sox opener since, I think, 1999.

Too bad for many reasons, but also because today is about as nice as early April weather gets in Chicago. Brightly sunny, high 40s. I'll be watching out of the corner of my eye later on, but it won't be the same.

The Cubs started off on time and according to plan last night in Houston, winning 4-2 behind a surprisingly effective Opening Night performance by Carlos Zambrano. We got Big Z, the effective dominator, rather than Zammy, his rodeo clown evil twin. By mid-game, Zambrano had struck out 5 of 7 batters and looked about as good as he did during his no-hitter against the Astros last September in Milwaukee.

Still, Piniella pulled him after he put the first two men on in the 7th inning. The bullpen was good: Aaron Heilman limited the damage to a run, and Neal Cotts finished off the 7th; Carlos Marmol pitched through a walk in the 8th; and Kevin Gregg started his tour as a Cubs closer with two hits and a sacrific fly, but settled down and locked down the win.

Offensively, there was both power and efficency, as Alfonso Soriano led off the game (and the Cubs season) with a home run, and Aramis Ramirez later led off the 2nd inning with a solo shot. Why do pitchers--and especially a pitcher as effective and experienced as Roy Oswalt--throw so many fastballs to Soriano? Maybe it's the old adage that you need to establish the fastball and your location before doing anything else, but it's the top reason why Al-So has so many game-starting HRs. It doesn't make much sense to have him lead-off--never has and never will--but every time he starts a game with a homer, he makes it harder to argue the case against moving him.

Mike Fontenot also had three hits and scored a run on a sacrifice fly from Ryan Theriot--that was the efficiency part. Zambrano's win was his first career Opening Day win--we are looking for signs already...

Marmol update

Paul Sullivan's Cubs Bits in the Chicago Tribune mentioned today that Carlos Marmol didn't take his expected turn in relief yesterday because he appeared in a minor league game instead.

I haven't found a report on what he did in that game, but the Trib also had quotes from Lou that seemed to suggest he was letting Marmol off the hook for his bad outing Thursday. That was the day in which all of the Cactus League faced some harsh valley winds--probably the same ones pushing a spring snowstorm toward Chicago at the moment.

Anyway, Lou plans to make his official decision on a closer by tomorrow, but Kevin Gregg looks to have a lock on it.

Closing thoughts on spring

I just watched my two favorite teams go head-to-head, with the Cubs beating the White Sox 9-4. The Cubs took three out of four from the Sox this spring, though of course, these things must be kept in perspective during spring training.

There were arguably three things notable about the game: First, it was Kosuke Fukudome's first game with the Cubs after his stint with WBC repeat champs Japan. He did not do much in the WBC, and though reports out of Arizona yesterday made it sound like he is better conditioned and in a better mood than he seemed to be last year, at the plate he looked roughly like the Fukie of around early July last year: Not like he could do whatever he wanted, but also not completely lost. He did go 1-4 and scored a run.

The second and third notable items have to do with closers. Bobby Jenks again pitched a scoreless inning for the Sox, which I think brings him to 7 IP this spring with a 0.00 ERA (I added his inning today to the stats in the link--MLB.com only had the stats updated through yesterday). He's been looking generally better with each appearance. His hits given up--6, I think (accurate spring stats are sometime hard to come by)--and walks--at least 4--do not engender a great deal of confidence, but seems to stick to the story of Bobby's recent career trend of starting trouble, but ending it before damage is done.

The final notable item is a noteworthy absence. With Lou Piniella about to decide his closer (it may be happening as I write this, so I'll follow up later), there was an expectation we would see shaky Carlos Marmol pitch both yesterday and today. He did pitch yesterday, but not today, and it wouldn't be much of a stretch to suggest that Lou made up his mind after seeing Marmol blow a save in yesterday's shortened game against the Giants, giving up a 2-run double to former (and forever) member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox, Aaron Rowand.

It was the latest in a string of troubling outings for Marmol, who had hit 5 batters and given up 6 hits in 8 IP since coming back to the Cubs after the WBC, even while striking out 10 and walking 1. Then there was the WBC fiasco: Marmol couldn't decide whether or not to pitch in the WBC, and then went and gave up the game-losing run that knocked his Dominican Republic team out of the tournament. The indecision itself was the latest thing that made me wonder about Marmol, even before he came back to the Cubs and posted a 4.50 ERA in a handful of outings. Indecision = lack of confidence, a closer's worst nightmare.

So, I'm fully expecting Lou to name Kevin Gregg the closer. Gregg has had a brilliant spring (Here's the Marmol-Gregg comparison through yesterday), though he was not used in any actual save situations this spring (Marmol at least had one save opp, yesterday's blown chance). Save opportunities, though, are pretty hard to come by in the spring, when teams are scoring 16 runs a game with regularity. Still, Gregg has had 0.00 ERA in 8.1 IP, 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Gregg as the closer is not a bad thing, though it makes me wish again that the Cubs had just kept Kerry Wood and kept Marmol firmly entrenched as the set-up man. You have to wonder now if Marmol's implosion this spring will lead some shakiness when the games really matter.

Here come the Cubs

According to many observations, the Cubs are basically being handed first place in the National League Central and being told, "Don't screw it up." The key to their whole season will be not to believe any of those observations, and at the same time, not to think about October at all until, say, October.

I'm not surprised so many people are picking the Cubs to win the division again. They have won it two years running, and no other team in their division has upgraded enough to challenge them. Of course, the second part remains to be seen once the season begins. Milwaukee lost its two best starters, and didn't upgrade anywhere else except at closer, and you can argue that Trevor Hoffman's best days are in the past. St. Louis didn't do much either, picking up Khalil Greene at shortstop, but they have a couple great, young arms in the bullpen that will mature this year, and Chris Carpenter is back. Houston, likewise, didn't do too much.

The problem, however, is that all three of those other teams finished at least 10 games above .500 last season. That may show how truly great the Cubs were in '08, but it also shows how good the whole division was. None of those three teams really got any worse during the off-season, though Milwaukee lost the single most talented player in CC Sabbathia. Meanwhile, Cincinnati, a loser last year, did get better, obtaining a good-hitting catcher in Ramon Hernandez and dumping a poor-fielding, free-swinging power hitter in Adam Dunn, while holding onto a very strong core of young players.

So, I think there are really five teams in the play-off contest in the N.L. Central. The Cubs may not only have a hard time winning 97 games again, they also will have a hard time winning the division, but they are certainly capable of doing it.

Here's my prediction for the 2009 starting line-up:

LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Kosuke Fukudome/2B Ryan Theriot (against lefties)
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Milton Bradley
C Geovany Soto
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot/CF Reed Johnson (against lefties)
P

Lou Piniella's big ambition this spring (other than the since-forgotten idea of moving Soriano down in the line-up) is to create a line-up that makes better us of lefties. That issue may be the only thing keeping Fukie as a starter as the season begins. If he tanks, expect to see an increase in Joey Gathright sightings, though Lou may also just give up on the commitment to lefties and give Johnson the job he probably deserves anyway.

Looking at the line-up, it's obvious the Cubs did not make any of the trades that we suggested last fall, but they did make some deals. They signed a trouble-making, injury-prone hitting-machine named Milton Bradley. I wonder how many plate appareance they will get out of him--I'll be surprised at more than 500. They jettisoned good guy, multi-position wonder Mark DeRosa for, well, for practically nothing as it turns out. They signed 2B/SS Aaron Miles, who now seems like an after-thought with Fontenot having already basically won the 2B starting job-but still a good pick up considering that they also did part with Ronny Cedeno.

What else? They of course parted with Kerry Wood to give Carlos Marmol or new acquisition Kevin Gregg a shot at closer. They dumped Bobby Howry and Michael Wuertz. They picked up speed by signing Gathright, though Gathright's bat is questionable. They lost a quality-hitting, strong-fielding back-up catcher in Henry Blanco, and it's still unclear whether Koyie Hill or free agent signing Paul Bako can pick up the slack, though both reportedly have been good handling the pitching staff. Finally, though not lastly, they sent Jason Marquis packing, giving Sean Marshall, Jeff Samarzdija, free agent signing Aaron Heilman and others a shot at the No. 5 starter job, a job that Marshall seems to have won.

Put all those deals together, and I think you more or less come out even. I still think they essentially downgraded at closer just as Wood was getting comfortable for either a guy who is emotionally unstable (Marmol) or just not as good (Gregg). They lost a very useful, loose dugout guy and increasingly good hitter (DeRosa), but his right-handed bat made him expendable, and picking up two quality switch-hitters (Bradley and Miles) makes up for the loss (and switch-hitter are always favorites of SBW). Meanwhile, Marshall may finally be ready for primetime as the No. 5 mound man.

Speaking of mound men, how about this potential pitching staff:

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Rich Harden
SP Sean Marshall

RP Jeff Samarzdija
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Aaron Heilman
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Neal Cotts
RP Luis Vizcaino

Cotts may have to make it because he's the only lefty in the pen, though I wonder if the Cubs will perhaps trade Vizcaino, Angel Guzman or Kevin Hart for a southpaw to take the spot that might otherwise go to Vizcaino. Except for the closer issue, I think the pitching staff looks good. I don't like Gregg as a possible closer, and he may not be as good a set-up man as Marmol, but he's an obvious upgrade from the fading Howry. Heilman didn't do well in the Mets' pen, but looks great this spring. Among the starters, Marshall is poised for a great year. Harden has been treated with kid gloves this spring and would probably be better as the sparingly-used fifth starter than Marshall.

There's no reason to expect anything worse or better than 2008 from the other three: Zambrano probably will be good between his implosions, Dempster may fall back a bit, but has now proved himself as a starter, and Lilly is still the most reliable pitcher the Cubs have.

What this all adds up to when throw in another utility man here and there (Micah Hoffpauir, maybe Sam Fuld or Jake Fox) is probably a first place team--but not by much. Lee's bat could become a concern, and Soriano, who supposedly will be running more this year, will have to be watched closely. Theriot and Fontenot right now look better than last year, and Bradley is a real threat is he stays healthy. No reason to expect Soto to drop off, and Fukie will either bounce back or be a non-factor by May.

My prediction for the Cubs is first place, maybe 90-72. At worst, I think they'll get the wild card if Milwaukee, St. Louis or Houston manages some magic. My hope is for a World Series, but as good as the team looks, I don't think they look any better prepared for a best-of-five play-off series than they were last year. That doesn't mean they won't do it, but if there's a reason that they can do it this year after going 0-6 in the postseason the last two years, Lou and his players may need to rummage around in their own heads to find it.

Don't got Wood

I'm checking in for the first time in more than a month because yesterday was such a significant day for Chicago baseball: Kerry Wood will be leaving the Cubs, after GM Jim Hendry declined to pursue a contract with him. It's not totally surprising because even if Wood would (heh-heh) have settled for less than market value to stay in Chicago, he would have commanded a multi-year deal that wouldn't have made sense, given Carlos Marmol's apparent readiness to be the closer.

The Cubs also traded once-ballyhooed minor league pitcher Jose Ceda to the Marlins yesterday for Kevin Gregg, who is now the Cubs' closer insurance if Marmol isn't ready. At least, I'm assuming that will be the case, and not that Gregg will be given the closer job out-right. If Gregg is presumed to be the new closer, the Cubs just downgraded slightly, as Gregg walked twice as many men as Woody did last season (36 to 18) in about the same number of innings (68.1 to 66.1). I do worry about Marmol's emotional readiness. Part of Wood's successful transition to closer was that he became very cold-blooded early last season, a state which was never more apparent than when he paralyzed Prince Fielder with that well-placed curveball on Sept. 16 to end a 10-pitch at-bat and the game. That had to be one of my favorite moments from last year.

Wood will be missed, especially if he does well somewhere else--and that could even be in the Central Division, with Milwaukee and St. Louis both wondering who their closers will be. Wood had such a star-crossed career here that some may say the Cubs and Wood should have parted ways sooner. Say what you want about his durability, but ultimately, Woody has reached the postseason four times in 10 years as a Cub, and that's how I will choose to remember him.

The next question is, what will the Cubs do with the money they may have saved by cutting Wood loose. The talk about Peavy has been intriguing. Will the Cubs pull off a trade that may involve Dempster and then fish for another free agent starter? We'll see.

On the other side of town, the White Sox traded Nick "Dirty 30" Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira to the Yankees for two minor league pitchers and Wilson Betemit, who a multi-position Mark DeRosa type. That could mean Juan Uribe won't be back, though we have all heard that before.

Betemit is a good acquisition, though he has never really fulfilled his promise as a hitter. If you look at Swisher's stats from last season, you have to say the Sox got a great deal, but many observers, SBW included, think Swish will rebound in '09. It's a little disconcerting the Sox also shipped Texeira, who was unhittable last year at A and AA. The Sox received two somewhat more experienced hurlers in Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, but neither seems to be a real stand-out.

The Sox had earlier picked up one-time Rockie Jayson Nix to press Chris Getz at second base. Nix actually lost the starting job in Colorado last year and went to the minors, but he's decent hitter and has the speed asset Ozzie highly valued by the Sox. Other news we've all heard: Junior Griffey and Toby Hall are gone, and center field remains open.

A new beginning

Who had a good feeling about last night's Cubs/Reds pitching match-up? That's right, you heard it here first that Marquis would have a strong outing and lead the Cubs out of their 6-game losing streak. OK, maybe Soriano's 3-HR performance had something to do with it, too. Marquis kept the game in hand despite an bases-loaded walk on a questionalble call that looked like it would get him tossed early.

The Cubs offense--AlSo, DeRo, D-Lee and the rest--scored in every inning after the 2nd, but in the end, the bullpen did a lot to make this one a more painful experience for some fans than the 14-9 final would indicate. Mrs. SBW and I were heading back from dinner and listening to the radio when the Cubs were ahead 11-1, and I made fun of Ronny for feeling nervous about the 10-run lead. Then, the Reds scored 4 runs in the 8th, and by the time D-Lee was up in the 9th with the bases loaded, the Mrs. was screaming at the radio demanding more runs. Again, I had to laugh with the Cubs still up 11-5 at the time, but Lee and then Mighty Mite together drove in 3 runs to make it 14-5, I felt good with Wuertz on the mound to start the 9th, giving Marmol a rest with a 9-run lead, but Wuertz loaded the bases and Marmol came in looking like someone woken up in the middle of the night. He promptly gave up a grand slam to Jolbert Cabrera (Who?), but then came to his senses.

Hopefully, the Cubs are back to their winning ways, though their tough road to October gets tougher later this week.

I hate giving the White Sox second billing today because their 7-6 15-inning victory was a hugely significant game (while we were in the car with the Reds scoring runs late against the Cubs, I was switching from 720 AM to 670 AM frequently to track both games.)

Not long after we got home and the Cubs had sealed their victory, Thome obliterated an 0-1 pitch for career HR No. 537 and a White Sox winner, a turn of events which I called from my own couch just before it happened (my dog is a witness). I couldn't tell whether Thome's smash landed on the right field consourse or not, but yes, it went that far. Jenks had given the Angels a 6-5 lead in the 9th after the Sox had tied the score in the 7th an a 2-run HR by Dirty 30. But, the Sox tied it off K-Rod in the bottom of the 9th, thereby keeping Thiggy's 57-save record safe a little longer (K-Rod has 54 saves and certainly will break the record, though he has been off lately.)

The Sox blew a great chance to win the the 10th, wasting a man on 3rd with no outs situation. A.J. again showed poor base-running choices in getting caught off 3rd base for the second out of the inning (Doug Eddings wasn't around to save him this time.) A.J. wasn't replaced with a pinch-runner presumably because Ozzie used both Wise and Owens as PRs in the 9th (Owens getting himself thrown out at 2nd after doing a delayed tag-up from 1st base on the sac fly that scored the tying run.)

Despite the base-running gaffes, the bullpen was in lock-down mode. Even Jenks pitch a strong 10th after his bad 9th. But, Matt Thornton was more impressive, pitching 2-2/3 scoreless innings and Ehren Wasserman got the Sox out of a 14th inning jam--and got the win--by de-clawing the aging but still dangerous Vlad Guerrero.

The Piranhas lost, so the Sox are 2-1/2 games up in 1st place. They have already won the series against the postseason-ready Angels, and go for the sweep today. Both of our teams suddenly look fresh with new beginnings.

September to mis-remember

Pardon the time off--I was waiting to have something good to say, and finally I do: The White Sox just beat Cleveland 4-2, escaping town with a win and winning for the second time in their last six games. The story was solid pitching by Vazquez and a 1-2/3-inning, two-double-play save by no longer rusty Bobby Jenks. the Missile and Dirty 30 had HRs.

More importantly, everybody looked loose in this one. Last week, there was a call for more urgency and intensity, but maybe this Sox team is tougher to beat when it isn't trying so hard to find its inner strength. The Sox had been shut out on Labor Day, but the victimizer was likely Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, who won his 20th game. Last night's 9-3 downfall was tougher to take, as Danks tanked again and th Sox left 10 men on base. But, the bright spots were Dirty 30 and Paulie, who are both getting better at the plate. And... the Piranhas lost last night, so things are looking up... a little.

What's worse than leaving 10 men on base? 12, which is how many the Cubs stranded in a tough 9-7 11-inning loss Tuesday. After three games in which they had barely mustered any offense--peaking in a 3-0 loss when Mrs. SBW and I were in attendance on Labor Day--the Cubs had 15 hits, but could only bring 7 home. Geo, Edmonds, DeRo and AlSo (yes, Soriano) all hit HRs and there were even some other non-single run-scoring hits by The-Riot and Mighty Mite.

But, after Zammy left (more on that later) in the 5th with the score tied 3-3, the bullpen--more specifically Howry--couldn't hold. Woody gave up a game-winning 2-run HR to ex-Sox World Series hero Geoff Blum, but after multiple innings in which the Cubs left the winning run stranded, it didn't seem like such a surprise. Woody actually was otherwise good, striking out 4 in 2 IP, as was Marmol, who had 2 IP and came away clean. Fortunately for the Cubs, the Brewers lost their last two.

Well, the Cubs have now matched their longest losing streak of the season at 4. Hopefully, the fact reminds them of how good they really are.

Now, about Zammy. His 5 IP were by no means great, but he looked better than he had in recent games. But after the game, word come out that he "didn't feel good." When pressed, Lou said, according to the papers, "I think it's his arm." Do you really think so?

Zammy was supposed to be examined today, but no news yet on how that turned out. But, I bet Lou's right--it's his arm.

Is it too soon to start Samardzija?

Toughening up, falling down

Ryan Dempster's assignment Saturday was not a tough one: Beat a team with a 46-83 record. Yet, the Cubs couldn't get it done Friday and needed a win Saturday to give them a chance to win the series and stay in a strong pace-setting position. Dempster was as stingy as he's been all year, with 1 ER and 1 BB being the key stats in 7.1 innings. He's had only one truly bad outing all year (8 ER in 2.1 IP against our White Sox down at The Cell on June 27), and though he often puts himself in trouble with walks, he has been very good about avoiding getting shelled.

Much has been made of Demp's WS prediction in spring training, but what matters most, is that he came into the year fit and has stayed fit and amazingly consistent. He's 15-5, and you don't see any reason why he can't keep winning, unlike the hugely talented but topsy-turvy Zambrano. A-Ram helped Demp with 2 3-run HRs. DeRosa had another HR, and is in a groove.

I had a strange dream last night in which I met Mark DeRosa at a bar, and he came off in person as the fun-loving guy he seems to be on field and in interviews. Then I went to introduce him to Mrs. SBW, saying to her, "This is Mark De----,"and I suddenly couldn't remember the rest of his name. He got kind of annoyed and walked away. I ran after him, saying I always liked him even before he was on the Cubs, putting him on a couple of my fantasy teams because of his multi-position eligibility. How embarrassing...

Speaking of which, Javier Vazquez had a much tougher assignment than Dempster Saturday, facing the extremely resourceful Rays. He was fantastic through 7 innings and seemed a distant cousin of the Vazquez who often falls apart after 6 IP (By the way, when did we all start noting perfect games after 5 IP? Isn't the unwritten rule to wait until after the 6th?) With the Sox ahead 3-1 in the 8th, Vaz loaded the bases with no outs. Matt Thornton, who had struck out the side the day before, came in and things fell apart from there.

Though Vazquez doesn't do well in the late innings, you can't really blame Ozzie for staying with him. He could have gone to Thornton or D.J. Carrasco to start the inning (The first man up, Dioner Navarro, swings both ways, literally, but is worse vs. southpaws.) But, Vaz was under 90 pitches at the time. The bullpen got a very tough assignment, but that's what the job is all about (Ask Carlos Marmol, who came in with 2 on and 1 out Saturday and shut down the Nats, but also knows what it's like to unravel.)

Ultimately, the Sox, with the exception of JeDye, did almost nothing against the talented, but very beatable (especially if you're patient) Scott Kazmir. The power output on the Southside has been absolutely amazing, but it's not enough if guys aren't on base for those jacks, or if the infantry can't be counted on to keep inching the Sox forward between the heavy artillery hits (I'd like to dedicate that sentence to Sox fan G.B., who loves a good military metaphor.)

The Angels helped keep things tight in the A.L. Central by beating the Piranhas, but I think a lot of Sox fans today are feeling vulnerable. But, it ain't over yet, not nearly.

In the Red

The Sox were off and preparing for battle with the young, studly Rays, but the Cubs played Thursday afternoon, and were under pressure to win a series against the Reds. Dusty's Crusties pulled out a 2-1 squeaker Wednesday night that started as Lilly's best game of the season, but turned into an offensive lapse reminiscent of last weekend's 2-1 loss in Miami. You kept expecting the Cubs bats to show, but they just didn't.

Thursday was time for redemption and the hope Zammy (sorry, I can't bring myself to use Dusty's "Big Z") would find the correct arm slot and would not get too steamed about the numerous things that seem to set him off. The Venezuelan Babe Ruth homored, of course, and the Cubs needed it, as they edged out a 3-2 win. Zammy was solid--good enough, as they say, though it still seems like something's missing when he ends up with 4 Ks and 4 BBs in 7 IP. Today's problem, according to the post game reports, was a bad molar (Would anyone be surprised if he was grinding his teeth out there?)

Marmol came in with the score 3-1 and gave up a HR, but still registered the all-important "hold" to keep his league-lead for that ridiculous stat. That made Zammy's HR, the last run the Cubs scored, the difference. I'm telling you, No. 38's is the first lefty bat I'm turning to in a pinch during the play-offs--well, unless he's the starter that game...

I lied about elaborating on my Wrigley/Cell likes/dislikes in the particular post--I had some actual work to do today, so I'm saving that one for the weekend. Stay tuned...