B.J. and the baby bears

The Cubs have signed one-time superstar closer B.J. Ryan, according to the Chicago Tribune. More recently, Ryan has been a huge bust in Toronto, and was recently released. But, this looks like a low-risk move by the Cubs, landing a lefty with credentials who has only pitched in the American League thus far and could potentially do well against National Leaguers who haven't seen him.

Ryan is being sent to the Iowa Cubs, but I'll bet he gets to Wrigley before too long.

The Cubs have needed another southpaw and true bullpen-type pitcher (unlike Sean Marshall, whose good stuff and durable arm often goes to waste in short outings out of the pen). Signing Ryan also gives them some late-inning flexibility, particularly at a time when Carlos Marmol continues to amble along his strike-'em-out-or-walk-'em-in path.

Swinging away

The Cubs lost their 4th game in a row, 8-2 to the Cards, who are running away with the division title for the month of April (good thing there is no such thing). The problem, beyond injuries leaving the Cubs with a noticeable lack of depth, is that the Cubs are definitely tense and swinging away at the plate. A fair amount of contact, a few singles here and there but not often together, lots of lineouts and what else? Oh, right, very few walks--and it's the walks that helped the Cubs win many games last year and a few more earlier this month.

During the Cubs losing streak, here's their team BBs for each game: 0, 2, 2, 2. Compare those numbers to their 3 previous wins: 4, 7, 7. It seems obvious they feel a lot of pressure to make something happen, and when that happens this early in the season, it's a bad sign, but it's also something they have time to fix. Alfonso Soriano has been rendered useless by the line-up change putting him 3rd in the batting order. So useless that it almost seems like he is swinging at bad pitches on purpose--I'm not accusing him of anything, but that's how it looks. It's that bad.

The bright spots today: Ryan Theriot, who had a brief slump hitting lead-off had a pair of hits and 1 of the 2 Cubs walks today. Kosuke Fukudome had 2 hits, and so did Mike Fontenot, who has picked himself up the last couple games.

The worst things about today's game: David Patton grooved one to Albert Pujols with the bases loaded, and guess what? Patton's appearance after a decent start by Sean Marshall, began badly and went downhill as he walked 3 and gve up 5 runs, including the grand slam.

Also, very bad: When the score was still 3-1 Cards, Joey Gathright hustled out an infield hit, but then got picked off. Gathright, Aaron Miles and Patton are among the Cubs players that really need to start showing up in the wake of injuries to others.

Swinging away turned out not to be a bad thing for the White Sox--and especially Alexei "The Missile" Ramirez--tonight as they pummeled the Blue Jays 10-2 after mustering on offense ina 14-0 loss last night.

The Missile, who has struggled badly all month, came up in the 5th inning with the bases loaded and the Sox already up 4-2. The Missile of course hit four grand slams in his rookie season last year, and with his recent difficulties, I was just hoping he wouldn't try to be a hero--just sit on a few pitches and try to make contact. It seemed pretty darn unlikely that his young career had room for another big moment, but the unlikely was exactly what happened. He took a juicy inside-part-of-the-plate pitch into the left field stands, and it exited the yard about as quickly as his first four grand slams did. It was a no doubter--you could tell the way he got those skinny arms fully extended with the fat part of the bat coming directly into your living room. He went 2-4 with 5 RBIs for the game, his 3rd 2-hit game of the last week, so maybe he's back.

Other notables: Jermaine Dye had a 2-run homer and Brian Anderson drove in 2 runs. Paul Konerko was 3-4. Mark Buerhle, who we all were so worried about this spring, is now 3-0, and pitched a pretty quiet 6 innings before handing it off to the bullpen. Every batter in the Sox line-up had at least 1 hit in this one, and the team collected 6 walks. Sounds like a good template for the Cubs.

It's still early, he says

Rockies 5 Cubs 2
Cardinals 7 Cubs 4

Tigers 9 White Sox 0
White Sox 3 Rays 2

Again had a few problems with BlogSpot earlier today and so I'm catching up:

Rockies 5 Cubs 2--My first trip to Wrigley this year. Not much has changed, thankfully, except for the Captain Morgan's Club monstrosity along Addison which further clogs of the sidewalks. Why doesn't someone close Clark and Addison already on game day?

I'm just grumpy because the Cubs never got it going against an old mate. Jason Marquis had his ups and downs as a Cub, and as he pitched against his former teamates as a member of the Rockies, he looked a lot like his Cub self: A very hittable pitcher who gets into plenty of jams, but sometimes finds his way out via a timely ground-out, strikeout or--in one case--a strike-him out/thrown-him-out double play.


Colorado beat the Cubs 5-2 Wednesday as SBW watched from the cheap seats, in a game where you kept anticipating a Cubs comeback that never quite happened, right down to the fizzled bottom-9th attempt at a rally. That inning started with a Derrek Lee solo homer (The crowd was on D-Lee at the start of this one for his slow start this season, but he went 3-4 in this game.) The Cubs added 2 baserunner and had Geovany Soto (the tying run) at the plate with no outs.


But within a couple of minutes, the game was over: Mike Fontenot made an ill-advised attempt to advance from second to third on a pass ball. From my lofty perch, it looked like he left late and that the ball didn't get all that far away from Rockies catcher Chris Ianneta. Why he was in such a rush to advance is anyone's guess--if he get's to third and scores on a sac fly, the Cubs would still be down 5-3. Lou could not have been happy.


Next, Geo, who was in his first game back from a shoulder injury and looked pretty rusty the whole game, grounded into an easy double play. The Cubs blew some earlier chances with runners on, but tying run at the plate with no outs will be the hardest to forget. Micah Hoffpauir had an RBI double for the first run, by the way, and Fukie still has his mojo.

The other story of this one was that Rich Harden had a very strange outing, only 3.2 IP, but 8 Ks and 4 BBs. Lights out in the 1st inning, and then increasingly hittable and wild after that. Marquis drove in 2 runs. Soriano let a run score on an error. What else? Neal Cotts was brought in to face lefties, but could get them out--remember that one for later.

Cardinals 7 Cubs 4--Today was just as frustrating, if not more so, as the Cubs squandered some early BBs courtesy of Cards pitcher Adam Wainwright. Milton Bradley made a surprise appearance as a pinch hitter with the bases juiced and was called out on strikes and then thrown out of the game for arguing--get used to that. Bradley started off with the count 3-0 and then looked like he didn't want to swing. I'm sure he would have gotten a pinch-runner if he got on, but he looked extremely tentative, and while Bradley and the crowd got on the home plate ump, it looked to me like he let 3 straight strikes blow right by him.

Other than that, Fukie again showed up when few others did, stroking a 3-run homer. he was caught stealing for the second game in a row--needs to work on that. D-Lee had a sac fly for the other Cubs run.

On the mound, Sean Marshall was definitely at least adequate, with 5 IP, 3 ER and 4 Ks, but was pulled after 93 pitches. Piniella and his staff are keeping him on a short leash to start the season, but I sure would have liked to see him go another inning in this one. He was pulled after an inning-opening single, and handed a 4-3 lead to Aaron Heilman, who gave it up the same inning. Later, Neal Cotts was handed the game with a lefty up and a runner on third, and guess what happened? Single to right field. I loved Cotts as a very effective member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox, but the last few games he is not doing the one thing he is required to do: Get lefties out.

Anyway, it's a good thing its only April 16.

Tigers 9 Sox 0--Almost nothing worth mentioning from the Sox' blow-out loss on Wednesday. Jose Contreras started well, but got knocked around his second trip through the Tigers' batting order, almost the same thing that happened in his first start. Also, Contreras is just about one of the easiest pitchers around to steal on, and he proved it in this game by letting big, slow Miguel Cabrera steal second base off of him. Cabrera is an amazing player, but if he steals another base all year it will have to be because Contreras is on the mound.

Still, while Contreras was most definitely not dealing in this one, it was Mike MacDougal who really put the game out of reach, giving up 4 ER on 4 hits and 3 BBs in 2 IP. Ozzie seemed determined at the opening of the season to give Mac yet another chance, but we'll see how long that lasts. I'd mention the Sox hitting highlights, but there were none.

White Sox 3 Rays 2--Speaking of stealing bases, the Rays are absolutely relentless in that department. But, they could not do much with lefty John Danks pitching tonight. Danks was pretty tough with 6 IPs, 1 ER and 8 Ks, and left with a 2-1 lead. The runs came on a 2-run homer by Jermaine Dye.

The Rays found it much easier to steal on the Sox bullpen, getting a stolen base off Octavio Dotel and stealing 3 bases off Bobby Jenks as he tried to close out the 9th. Jenks gave up a run, but the Sox fortunately had purchased insurance in the top of the 9th on an RBI infield hit by Josh Fields.

The Sox actually left the bases loaded in the 9th, and didn't make the most of their chances tonight. That usually spells misfortune against the Rays, but this time they escaped.

Here come the Cubs

According to many observations, the Cubs are basically being handed first place in the National League Central and being told, "Don't screw it up." The key to their whole season will be not to believe any of those observations, and at the same time, not to think about October at all until, say, October.

I'm not surprised so many people are picking the Cubs to win the division again. They have won it two years running, and no other team in their division has upgraded enough to challenge them. Of course, the second part remains to be seen once the season begins. Milwaukee lost its two best starters, and didn't upgrade anywhere else except at closer, and you can argue that Trevor Hoffman's best days are in the past. St. Louis didn't do much either, picking up Khalil Greene at shortstop, but they have a couple great, young arms in the bullpen that will mature this year, and Chris Carpenter is back. Houston, likewise, didn't do too much.

The problem, however, is that all three of those other teams finished at least 10 games above .500 last season. That may show how truly great the Cubs were in '08, but it also shows how good the whole division was. None of those three teams really got any worse during the off-season, though Milwaukee lost the single most talented player in CC Sabbathia. Meanwhile, Cincinnati, a loser last year, did get better, obtaining a good-hitting catcher in Ramon Hernandez and dumping a poor-fielding, free-swinging power hitter in Adam Dunn, while holding onto a very strong core of young players.

So, I think there are really five teams in the play-off contest in the N.L. Central. The Cubs may not only have a hard time winning 97 games again, they also will have a hard time winning the division, but they are certainly capable of doing it.

Here's my prediction for the 2009 starting line-up:

LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Kosuke Fukudome/2B Ryan Theriot (against lefties)
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Milton Bradley
C Geovany Soto
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot/CF Reed Johnson (against lefties)
P

Lou Piniella's big ambition this spring (other than the since-forgotten idea of moving Soriano down in the line-up) is to create a line-up that makes better us of lefties. That issue may be the only thing keeping Fukie as a starter as the season begins. If he tanks, expect to see an increase in Joey Gathright sightings, though Lou may also just give up on the commitment to lefties and give Johnson the job he probably deserves anyway.

Looking at the line-up, it's obvious the Cubs did not make any of the trades that we suggested last fall, but they did make some deals. They signed a trouble-making, injury-prone hitting-machine named Milton Bradley. I wonder how many plate appareance they will get out of him--I'll be surprised at more than 500. They jettisoned good guy, multi-position wonder Mark DeRosa for, well, for practically nothing as it turns out. They signed 2B/SS Aaron Miles, who now seems like an after-thought with Fontenot having already basically won the 2B starting job-but still a good pick up considering that they also did part with Ronny Cedeno.

What else? They of course parted with Kerry Wood to give Carlos Marmol or new acquisition Kevin Gregg a shot at closer. They dumped Bobby Howry and Michael Wuertz. They picked up speed by signing Gathright, though Gathright's bat is questionable. They lost a quality-hitting, strong-fielding back-up catcher in Henry Blanco, and it's still unclear whether Koyie Hill or free agent signing Paul Bako can pick up the slack, though both reportedly have been good handling the pitching staff. Finally, though not lastly, they sent Jason Marquis packing, giving Sean Marshall, Jeff Samarzdija, free agent signing Aaron Heilman and others a shot at the No. 5 starter job, a job that Marshall seems to have won.

Put all those deals together, and I think you more or less come out even. I still think they essentially downgraded at closer just as Wood was getting comfortable for either a guy who is emotionally unstable (Marmol) or just not as good (Gregg). They lost a very useful, loose dugout guy and increasingly good hitter (DeRosa), but his right-handed bat made him expendable, and picking up two quality switch-hitters (Bradley and Miles) makes up for the loss (and switch-hitter are always favorites of SBW). Meanwhile, Marshall may finally be ready for primetime as the No. 5 mound man.

Speaking of mound men, how about this potential pitching staff:

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Rich Harden
SP Sean Marshall

RP Jeff Samarzdija
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Aaron Heilman
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Neal Cotts
RP Luis Vizcaino

Cotts may have to make it because he's the only lefty in the pen, though I wonder if the Cubs will perhaps trade Vizcaino, Angel Guzman or Kevin Hart for a southpaw to take the spot that might otherwise go to Vizcaino. Except for the closer issue, I think the pitching staff looks good. I don't like Gregg as a possible closer, and he may not be as good a set-up man as Marmol, but he's an obvious upgrade from the fading Howry. Heilman didn't do well in the Mets' pen, but looks great this spring. Among the starters, Marshall is poised for a great year. Harden has been treated with kid gloves this spring and would probably be better as the sparingly-used fifth starter than Marshall.

There's no reason to expect anything worse or better than 2008 from the other three: Zambrano probably will be good between his implosions, Dempster may fall back a bit, but has now proved himself as a starter, and Lilly is still the most reliable pitcher the Cubs have.

What this all adds up to when throw in another utility man here and there (Micah Hoffpauir, maybe Sam Fuld or Jake Fox) is probably a first place team--but not by much. Lee's bat could become a concern, and Soriano, who supposedly will be running more this year, will have to be watched closely. Theriot and Fontenot right now look better than last year, and Bradley is a real threat is he stays healthy. No reason to expect Soto to drop off, and Fukie will either bounce back or be a non-factor by May.

My prediction for the Cubs is first place, maybe 90-72. At worst, I think they'll get the wild card if Milwaukee, St. Louis or Houston manages some magic. My hope is for a World Series, but as good as the team looks, I don't think they look any better prepared for a best-of-five play-off series than they were last year. That doesn't mean they won't do it, but if there's a reason that they can do it this year after going 0-6 in the postseason the last two years, Lou and his players may need to rummage around in their own heads to find it.