Tired arms

Maybe Jose Contreras has the same problem as Kevin Gregg--a tired arm--and maybe like Gregg, he is not telling anyone about it, until it's too late. Contreras hasn't pitched many innings this year, but perhaps his age, whatever it might be, is finally getting to him.

Contreras didn't even make it to the 4th inning last night, walking 5 guys and hitting 1. The Sox won anyway, as thet eventually beat the tough LA Angels 5-4 in last-inning heroics by Scott Podsednik, who drove in Jayson Nix, who had doubled with 2 outs. But, Contreras' recent problems show Jake Peavy can't get well soon enough.

Meanwhile, the Cubs' solution for Gregg's tired arm, which cost them a win Sunday in Florida, is to use either Carlos Marmol, who got in trouble and then out of it (as is his way) on Monday when the Cubs beat the Reds 4-2, or Angel Guzman, who has shown mostly good stuff all year but gave up a 2-run homer in the 9th inning last night before closing out the Reds in a 6-3 victory.

I'm a bit worried about the whole Gregg situation because he is not a stranger to the DL. He is on a pace to give up more hits this year than in previous years, so he has been working hard for his saves, and he has shockingly given up 10 homers, the most of any NL reliever (though 3 of those came in his last 2 fated outings). Both Marmol and Guzman are too wild and emotional to close games on a regular basis, which leaves... newly-acquired John Grabow? Tom Gorzelanny, who pitched so well as a starter Tuesday? Sean Marshall? All 3 are lefties, but the Cubs suddenly have a surplus of southpaws that will only increase when Ted Lilly returns.

What about Ryan Dempster in a pinch?

Almost fish-fried

When the Cubs picked up Kevin Gregg last November, I felt it was a slight downgrade at the closer position. I kept going back to a game last August when his then-employer the Florida Marlins were leading the Cubs 5-3 in the 9th and Gregg fed a 3-run homer to Daryle Ward. The Cubs won that game 6-5.

This year, however, Gregg has built a strong season from a crappy start, and with Carlos Marmol struggling nearly all year, Gregg arguably has been the MVP of the bullpen. He hasn't had any spectacular failures like the one from last August--until last night, that is.

With one strike left to gain a save and give the Cubs a victory in an 8-5 game, Gregg gave up a solo homerun and then three straight hits--two singles and a triple--that sent the game into extras at a score of 8-8.

This was one of those games that the Cubs seemed destined to lose depsite taking a 6-0 lead after two innings. Carlos Zambrano was throwing poorly and had to leave in the 3rd inning with a sore back. The bullpen gave free passes to the Marlins left and right, and the Cubs offense mostly was shut down by the Marlins' pen after the 2nd inning, striking out 11 times in the following six innings.

So, in that sense, Gregg's way-blown save fit the script. Luckily, former (actually long-ago at this point) Marlin Derrek Lee forgot to read the script. He pounded a no-doubter homerun to lead off the 10th inning, and Aaron Heilman came in for the clean save in the bottom of the 10th. The Cubs also resorted to some funny fielding moves in the 10th because they were short-handed after Aramis Ramirez had to leave the game in the top of the 10th after being hit.

So, it was a tough one, but the Cubs managed a victory in a stadium that is to them what the Metrodome is to the White Sox--a chamber of horrors. Gregg got the win, and hopefully will not have another blemish like this one in what has been a very good year for him.

Got Wood, got win

I was supposed to go to Friday's Cubs game, but the rain-delayed start, threatening weather and a need to get home early and get downtown for dinner plans kept me home. Poor decision, as the weather improved greatly and the game cruised through the first 7-1/2 innings. I would have missed the rest, but it might have been worth the trip to see some of the Indians fans, who according to my brother were acting like it was again Ten-Cent Beer Night in Cleveland, rather than a muggy dau in Chicago.

The Cubs completed their second straight amazing comeback win Friday when Ryan Theriot drove home Alfonso Soriano on a groundball with eyes that scooted past the Cleveland Indians 1st baseman. Another Cubbie moment to make the final score 8-7 on a day when the Cubs were down 7-0 halfway through. Minutes after the finish, another wave of storms swept through, so it was a case of great timing by the Cubs.

But, the biggest moment may have been Derrek Lee's game-tying bottom-9th homer off of former Cubs favorite Kerry Wood. I wish it would have happened to someone else, but I wouldn't trade the outcome for anything. Woody has not had a great year at all with his new team, though he has been better the last month or so. The problem may be that the Indian's never get him a lead, so he doesn't get much work--he was best last year after he came back from minor pains and got consistent work for the Cubs during the second-half. Sorry, Woody, but the Cubs need the wins.

In the 8th inning, it didn't look like we would get Wood at all, as the Indians were ahead 7-2, but their terrible bullpen gave up 4 more runs that inning. An error helped, but the Cubs looked like a new team stringing together singles and aggressive base-running that inning--all with 2 outs. Andres Blanco had a big 2-run, bases-loaded single to start the rally, while another run scored on a hard-hit grounder that was called an error and left Koyie Hill safe at 1st. Soriano, suddenly hitting again, drove in the last run of the inning with a single.

D-Lee had 2 homers on the day, the other in the 6th against the tough Cliff Lee. reed Johnson also homered earlier off of Lee.

Friday was also the homecoming for Mark DeRosa, the guy from last year who I think the Cubs miss the most. He got a nice standing ovation, and was 1-3 with an RBI and 2 walks. When Lou Piniella said the other day in the paper that the Cubs clubhouse is pretty quiet this year, that confirmed it for me: The Cubs made the wrong decision when they decided that a left-handed bat was worth more than DeRo's personality in the clubhouse. What they did in trading him of course makes perfect baseball sense--but, for all the stats and tendencies and percentages we all collect, there is so much about baseball that doesn't fit neatly into a spread sheet, or even an old baseball mentality that says the more lefties the better. Of course, if Milton Bradley and Aaron Miles, the switch-hitters that effectively replaced DeRo, guide the Cubs to the World Series, all will be forgiven.

Woody's replacement, Kevin Gregg, got the win yesterday, though most days I would still rather have Wood.

Wells swell, but still winless

"I think I need to throw more strikes. The balls are killing me."--Carlos Marmol, in today's Chicago Tribune.

Carlos Marmol's balls may be killing him, but Randy Wells is the one in real pain.

Things were going all too well for Wells, even after he lost his no-hit bid in the 7th inning and gave up a solo homer to start the 8th. The Cubs were still ahead 5-1, and Wells was only around the 80-pitch mark. It was his game to win, it seemed.

Then, however, a Cubbie moment: Derrek Lee blew an easy catch at first base, allowing a runner aboard on an error. True Cubs fans had to know this uncharacteristic sort of blunder means things are about to go very, very wrong. The next thing to go wrong was ou Piniella yanking Wells after just 83 pitches right after the error.

This, of course, seems like a safe thing to do with a four-run lead in the 8th inning, but I'm still baffled, if only because Wells had made only one real mistake the whole game with the solo homer. The hit he gave up in the 7th was to Chipper Jones, one of the best in the business. He did not record an out after facing two batters in the 8th, but that wasn't his fault. Besides, Wells has done a great job in at least two recent starts pitching himself out of big jams with men on base, most recently against the Dodgers last week. And, he was really on last night. At least give him one more batter after Lee's botched play, to give him the chance to show whether or not he's had enough.

The only thing worse than yanking Wells too early is putting Carlos Marmol in with a man already on base. See, when, given his own inning to start, the wild, jittery Marmol likes to load the bases before settling down and working out it. If he starts with a man on base--well, you do the math. Marmol was a mess, walking in a run, hitting a guy--the usual. He left with the Cubs up 5-3 and less margin for error by cloer Kevin Gregg the following inning.

The next Cubbie moment was a dropped third strike. With one out in the bottom of the 9th and Gregg looking aggressive and effective, Garrett Anderson swung and missed a ball in the dirt. Geovany Soto missed it, too, and Anderson was on. One out later, Gregg faced hometown Atlanta boy Jeff Francouer, the Braves guy I would least like to see in that situation. I would have even rather seen Chipper, who is less likely to hurt you with a homerun. The hometown boy made good, leaving it 5-5 for three innings, during which the Cubs mostly waited for the Braves to figure out how to win.

In the end, it was Chipper driving a man home from second with one out and first base open. I believe the manager's handbook says to walk the career .311 hitter in that situation. That would have brought up another good hitter, catcher Brian McCann, but it also would have set up an easy inning-ended double play on almost any ground ball. Lou would have none of it, and that was that.

This game did have other bright spots besides Wells; swell and ultimately wasted effort. Alfonso Soriano ledd off the game with a homerun, and is now in second place for career homers leading off a game. D-Lee hit a rare homer, and had an all-around good day except for the untimely error.

Just another game at the beginning of June, I know and nothing to fret too much about. Just another lost opportunity, and hopefully, the Cubs won't finish one lost opportunity out of the postseason.

The-Riot delivers some chaos

"You can't quiet The-Riot."--Slogan on T-Shirt seen outside of Wrigley Field.

Other than the resurgence of Kosuke Fukudome and the more patient hitting of Alfonso Soriano, the one thing a slumping Cubs offense has been able to count on this year is Ryan Theriot, who always manages to get a hit or two.

Well, today he had the unexpectedly big hit, a grand slam that rallied the Cubs from a 5-2 deficit against the Marlins, and that re-awakened Wrigley fans from their grumpy drunkeness. It was Theriot's first career grand slam, and it could happen to a more deserving guy, who even when he's not hitting manages to force pitchers to burn their arms by going deep into counts.

The Cubs eventually won 8-6 in a game in which Rich Harden started poorly and only got worse, lasting 3.2 IP with 5 ERs and only 2 Ks against 4 BBs. There were a couple signs of resurgent offense in this one (though we thought that was the case the other night in Arizona, too--we'll see if it sticks). Most notably, beyond Theriot's blast and a couple of timely walks drawn by the Cubs, two slumping Cubs came alive, Derrek Lee was 2-4 and Geovany Soto was 2-3 with an RBI.

The bullpen was sufficient in this one, with closer Kevin Gregg yielding the only Marlins run after Harden left the game. Still, Carlos Marmol was shaky for the second straight game, walking 2 to open the 8th inning, but battling back to strikeout the side. Neal Cotts was pleasantly unsucky, giving up a walk but striking out 2 in his scoreless inning on the mound. Still, the bullpen walked 5 men total, which ain't good even if only one run scored in 5-1/3 of work.

Delayed gratification

Just like you had to wait a while for this re-cap post, both of our Chicago teams had to wait through long, nerve-wracking 9th innings Sunday before they could collect on wins.

The Sox won the series of the Minnesota Twins Sunday with a 6-1 victory. With Mark Buerhle on the mound, things were moving fast, and he was especially good, wasting none of the energy that it seemed to take for him to get guys out on Opening Day last week. He gave up a homerun earlier, but recorded 15 outs in a row until he was lifted in the 7th inning with the Sox up 3-1. He still looked brilliant as he was nearing 100 pitches, but I'll bet his exit had more to do a desire by the Sox to ease him into a long workload after a problematic spring.

The Twins uncharacteristically recorded 3 errors, one of which led to a Sox run early on, but Jim Thome put the Sox up 3-1 in the 6th with a 2-run HR. In the 7th, Josh Field drove in a run with a single, and Carlos Quentin added a sacrifice fly. In the 8th, Jermaine Dye added a solo HR.

Case closed, you would think, but Clayton Richard started the 9th with 2 BBs and a hit as the game slowed to a near halt. Bobby Jenks came in with the bases loaded and nobody out, but managed to get a ground out and a double play to end it.

The Cubs also had to live through a shaky 9th, again courtesy of new closer Kevin Gregg. The Cubs won 8-5, but entered the 9th winning 8-4. Gregg got the first couple hitters, but with 2 out, he gave up a homerun to Rickie Weeks, who at this point, Gregg should never face again if possible (after a game-tying double on Friday night that led to an eventual Brewers win). After the Weeks HR, Gregg put the next 2 men on, bring the tying run to the plate in the large and dangerous form of Prince Fielder. Gregg pushed the count to 3-2, and got Fielder on what appeared to be a foul tip into the glove of Koyie Hill.

The highlights: The Cubs got 4 of their runs on 4 straight bases-loaded walks in the 4th inning--how's that for symmetry? But, there were bigger highlights than that: Alfonso Soriano led of another game with a home-run. He has 4 HR this year (naturally) had has been the star performer offensively for the Cubs.

Defensively, Reed Johnson made another huge, highlight-reel catch, reach over the wall in right field and stealing what would have been a grand slam by Fielder in the 5th inning. Ryan Dempster was just good enough in this game, and that catch probably kept him in the game a while longer.

The other interesting note is that Johnson had just entered the game a half-inning earlier after Milton Bradley suffered what appeared to be a groin injury running the bases. Let's hope the injury isn't too serious, but that's what you can expect from Bradley, who really hasn't done much in the young season so far.

All chewed up

"I hate the f-ing twins."
-text message from The Commish, 9:29 p.m. Friday, April 10

In the re-match of Game 163 from last year, the Minnesota Piranhas came to play, and the White Sox, while moving with more energy than they had in their first three games, came up way short. Twins 12 Sox 5.

For the Sox, there was good, bad and ugly.

The good: Chris Getz had a hit, a walk and a stolen base from the lead-off spot, and DeWayne Wise, the Opening Day lead-off man now buried at the bottom of the line-up, broke out of his slump with a couple of hits. Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin both had homers, and seem to be improving a bit every game. Joe Crede also homered--oh, wait, he's on the Twins, now.

Crede got a nice hand in his first at-bat returning to The Cell, but Sox fans turned on him pretty quickly after the homer.

The bad: Jose Contreras started, and after a spring that seemed very positive primarly for his unexpectedly early return from injury, he looked like he wasn't quite ready for prime-time yet.

The ugly: The Twins had a 7-run 7th inning, which started with a home run by Justin Morneau, followed by three walks (by Clayton Richard and Mike MacDougal) and then five singles in a row off D.J. Carrasco (Ozzie had pretty much given up be then) before any outs were recorded.

The Sox are 1-3, and today send Bartolo Colon out for his first start against Francisco Liriano. Colon is a real wild card going into this year, so all bets are off for this one, but Liriano looked surpising hittable in his first start earlier this week, so we'll see.

Cubs update: Following up on my post from yesterday about the Cubs' miserable loss to the Brewers, I'd add that upon further review, the ball hit over Alfonso Soriano's head by Rickie Weeks was definitely a rocket. However, Soriano seemed to drift off the path of the ball as he moved back toward the wall. Ultimately, though, Kevin Gregg really fed one on a platter to Weeks. Catcher Koyie Hill blamed himself for the pitch selection, but Gregg has not been impressive thus far.

The new Cardinals

The Brewers are the new Cardinals. Sure, the Beermakers-Cubs rivalry has been building up steam for a few years now, and really became a marquee (not Marquis) match-up last year. But, losses to the Brewers have somehow always made me feel: "Well, at least it wasn't the Cardinals."

No more. Today's 4-3 loss to the Brewers--even though it's just the fourth game of the season and the Cubs are now 2-2--took a lot out of me, and made me realize how much the losses to the Brewers hurt. And it wasn't just the bottom-9th comeback to tie and win by the Brew Crew. A pretty good pitching duel between Rich Harden and Braden Looper early on netted Harden 10 strikeouts, but had him losing 2-1, with one of the runs unearned and derived from a 1st inning error by Ryan Theriot.

The Cubs moved ahead in the 6th inning on a 2-run homer by Koyie Hill, subbing for the injured Geovany Soto. In the epically-long bottom of the 7th inning, 3 different Cubs pitchers were used to walk to Brewers batter and hit another before Carlos Marmol finally shut things down. Yet, the early appearance by Marmol seemed like a bad omen (Over the three final innings, the Cubs pen would walk 5 batters.) Lou Piniella turned to Luis Vizcaino in the 8th, but needed closer Kevin Gregg to come in and get the last out of the inning.

In the 9th, Gregg got the first batter to ground out, but looked shaky against the second man, walking him on a pitch that bounced about 8 feet in front of the plate, a pitch that Hill would later take the blame for. Next batter: Rickie Weeks, of the swing-and-hope-it's-a-fastball school of hitting. Weeks, who had an uncharacteristically great day in the field up to that point, got what he wanted.

Gregg, perhaps over-compensating for the previosu walk, grooved it down the middle, and Weeks pounded it over Alfonso Soriano's head in left. It seemed like a bad choice of pitch by Gregg against a notorious free-swinger, though Weeks had the count in his favor, so that makes for a pretty tough call. The thing that sort of bugs me a little bit more is we saw another late reaction and pitiful attempt by Soriano to reach the ball hit by Weeks. He seemed to be playing fairly deep, and the baseball textbook would likely say that in that situation (runner on 1st, up by 1 run, bottom of the 9th) you want to play deep to stop a double. So, what happened? Was it hit so hard, Soriano could do nothing but wave lamely? Was the sun, coming through the window wall of Miller Park on the 1st base side, a factor in his ability to see the ball?

Maybe I'm being tough on Al-So, but he seems to land in the middle of these types of situations. I'm willing to think I'm over-reacting right now, and that it's entirelly possible I'll cool off about this later. But, I think I now hate losing to the Brewers more than anybody.

Opening Day: Hits and misses

Well, because the White Sox postponed (perhaps prematurely) their opener by one day, I am left on the bench, unable to make the trip down to the Southside because of a prior work commitment. It's the first time I will fail to report for a Sox opener since, I think, 1999.

Too bad for many reasons, but also because today is about as nice as early April weather gets in Chicago. Brightly sunny, high 40s. I'll be watching out of the corner of my eye later on, but it won't be the same.

The Cubs started off on time and according to plan last night in Houston, winning 4-2 behind a surprisingly effective Opening Night performance by Carlos Zambrano. We got Big Z, the effective dominator, rather than Zammy, his rodeo clown evil twin. By mid-game, Zambrano had struck out 5 of 7 batters and looked about as good as he did during his no-hitter against the Astros last September in Milwaukee.

Still, Piniella pulled him after he put the first two men on in the 7th inning. The bullpen was good: Aaron Heilman limited the damage to a run, and Neal Cotts finished off the 7th; Carlos Marmol pitched through a walk in the 8th; and Kevin Gregg started his tour as a Cubs closer with two hits and a sacrific fly, but settled down and locked down the win.

Offensively, there was both power and efficency, as Alfonso Soriano led off the game (and the Cubs season) with a home run, and Aramis Ramirez later led off the 2nd inning with a solo shot. Why do pitchers--and especially a pitcher as effective and experienced as Roy Oswalt--throw so many fastballs to Soriano? Maybe it's the old adage that you need to establish the fastball and your location before doing anything else, but it's the top reason why Al-So has so many game-starting HRs. It doesn't make much sense to have him lead-off--never has and never will--but every time he starts a game with a homer, he makes it harder to argue the case against moving him.

Mike Fontenot also had three hits and scored a run on a sacrifice fly from Ryan Theriot--that was the efficiency part. Zambrano's win was his first career Opening Day win--we are looking for signs already...

Marmol update

Paul Sullivan's Cubs Bits in the Chicago Tribune mentioned today that Carlos Marmol didn't take his expected turn in relief yesterday because he appeared in a minor league game instead.

I haven't found a report on what he did in that game, but the Trib also had quotes from Lou that seemed to suggest he was letting Marmol off the hook for his bad outing Thursday. That was the day in which all of the Cactus League faced some harsh valley winds--probably the same ones pushing a spring snowstorm toward Chicago at the moment.

Anyway, Lou plans to make his official decision on a closer by tomorrow, but Kevin Gregg looks to have a lock on it.

Closing thoughts on spring

I just watched my two favorite teams go head-to-head, with the Cubs beating the White Sox 9-4. The Cubs took three out of four from the Sox this spring, though of course, these things must be kept in perspective during spring training.

There were arguably three things notable about the game: First, it was Kosuke Fukudome's first game with the Cubs after his stint with WBC repeat champs Japan. He did not do much in the WBC, and though reports out of Arizona yesterday made it sound like he is better conditioned and in a better mood than he seemed to be last year, at the plate he looked roughly like the Fukie of around early July last year: Not like he could do whatever he wanted, but also not completely lost. He did go 1-4 and scored a run.

The second and third notable items have to do with closers. Bobby Jenks again pitched a scoreless inning for the Sox, which I think brings him to 7 IP this spring with a 0.00 ERA (I added his inning today to the stats in the link--MLB.com only had the stats updated through yesterday). He's been looking generally better with each appearance. His hits given up--6, I think (accurate spring stats are sometime hard to come by)--and walks--at least 4--do not engender a great deal of confidence, but seems to stick to the story of Bobby's recent career trend of starting trouble, but ending it before damage is done.

The final notable item is a noteworthy absence. With Lou Piniella about to decide his closer (it may be happening as I write this, so I'll follow up later), there was an expectation we would see shaky Carlos Marmol pitch both yesterday and today. He did pitch yesterday, but not today, and it wouldn't be much of a stretch to suggest that Lou made up his mind after seeing Marmol blow a save in yesterday's shortened game against the Giants, giving up a 2-run double to former (and forever) member of the 2005 World Champion Chicago White Sox, Aaron Rowand.

It was the latest in a string of troubling outings for Marmol, who had hit 5 batters and given up 6 hits in 8 IP since coming back to the Cubs after the WBC, even while striking out 10 and walking 1. Then there was the WBC fiasco: Marmol couldn't decide whether or not to pitch in the WBC, and then went and gave up the game-losing run that knocked his Dominican Republic team out of the tournament. The indecision itself was the latest thing that made me wonder about Marmol, even before he came back to the Cubs and posted a 4.50 ERA in a handful of outings. Indecision = lack of confidence, a closer's worst nightmare.

So, I'm fully expecting Lou to name Kevin Gregg the closer. Gregg has had a brilliant spring (Here's the Marmol-Gregg comparison through yesterday), though he was not used in any actual save situations this spring (Marmol at least had one save opp, yesterday's blown chance). Save opportunities, though, are pretty hard to come by in the spring, when teams are scoring 16 runs a game with regularity. Still, Gregg has had 0.00 ERA in 8.1 IP, 10 strikeouts and 2 walks. Gregg as the closer is not a bad thing, though it makes me wish again that the Cubs had just kept Kerry Wood and kept Marmol firmly entrenched as the set-up man. You have to wonder now if Marmol's implosion this spring will lead some shakiness when the games really matter.

Here come the Cubs

According to many observations, the Cubs are basically being handed first place in the National League Central and being told, "Don't screw it up." The key to their whole season will be not to believe any of those observations, and at the same time, not to think about October at all until, say, October.

I'm not surprised so many people are picking the Cubs to win the division again. They have won it two years running, and no other team in their division has upgraded enough to challenge them. Of course, the second part remains to be seen once the season begins. Milwaukee lost its two best starters, and didn't upgrade anywhere else except at closer, and you can argue that Trevor Hoffman's best days are in the past. St. Louis didn't do much either, picking up Khalil Greene at shortstop, but they have a couple great, young arms in the bullpen that will mature this year, and Chris Carpenter is back. Houston, likewise, didn't do too much.

The problem, however, is that all three of those other teams finished at least 10 games above .500 last season. That may show how truly great the Cubs were in '08, but it also shows how good the whole division was. None of those three teams really got any worse during the off-season, though Milwaukee lost the single most talented player in CC Sabbathia. Meanwhile, Cincinnati, a loser last year, did get better, obtaining a good-hitting catcher in Ramon Hernandez and dumping a poor-fielding, free-swinging power hitter in Adam Dunn, while holding onto a very strong core of young players.

So, I think there are really five teams in the play-off contest in the N.L. Central. The Cubs may not only have a hard time winning 97 games again, they also will have a hard time winning the division, but they are certainly capable of doing it.

Here's my prediction for the 2009 starting line-up:

LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Kosuke Fukudome/2B Ryan Theriot (against lefties)
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
RF Milton Bradley
C Geovany Soto
2B Mike Fontenot
SS Ryan Theriot/CF Reed Johnson (against lefties)
P

Lou Piniella's big ambition this spring (other than the since-forgotten idea of moving Soriano down in the line-up) is to create a line-up that makes better us of lefties. That issue may be the only thing keeping Fukie as a starter as the season begins. If he tanks, expect to see an increase in Joey Gathright sightings, though Lou may also just give up on the commitment to lefties and give Johnson the job he probably deserves anyway.

Looking at the line-up, it's obvious the Cubs did not make any of the trades that we suggested last fall, but they did make some deals. They signed a trouble-making, injury-prone hitting-machine named Milton Bradley. I wonder how many plate appareance they will get out of him--I'll be surprised at more than 500. They jettisoned good guy, multi-position wonder Mark DeRosa for, well, for practically nothing as it turns out. They signed 2B/SS Aaron Miles, who now seems like an after-thought with Fontenot having already basically won the 2B starting job-but still a good pick up considering that they also did part with Ronny Cedeno.

What else? They of course parted with Kerry Wood to give Carlos Marmol or new acquisition Kevin Gregg a shot at closer. They dumped Bobby Howry and Michael Wuertz. They picked up speed by signing Gathright, though Gathright's bat is questionable. They lost a quality-hitting, strong-fielding back-up catcher in Henry Blanco, and it's still unclear whether Koyie Hill or free agent signing Paul Bako can pick up the slack, though both reportedly have been good handling the pitching staff. Finally, though not lastly, they sent Jason Marquis packing, giving Sean Marshall, Jeff Samarzdija, free agent signing Aaron Heilman and others a shot at the No. 5 starter job, a job that Marshall seems to have won.

Put all those deals together, and I think you more or less come out even. I still think they essentially downgraded at closer just as Wood was getting comfortable for either a guy who is emotionally unstable (Marmol) or just not as good (Gregg). They lost a very useful, loose dugout guy and increasingly good hitter (DeRosa), but his right-handed bat made him expendable, and picking up two quality switch-hitters (Bradley and Miles) makes up for the loss (and switch-hitter are always favorites of SBW). Meanwhile, Marshall may finally be ready for primetime as the No. 5 mound man.

Speaking of mound men, how about this potential pitching staff:

SP Carlos Zambrano
SP Ryan Dempster
SP Ted Lilly
SP Rich Harden
SP Sean Marshall

RP Jeff Samarzdija
RP Carlos Marmol
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Aaron Heilman
RP Chad Gaudin
RP Neal Cotts
RP Luis Vizcaino

Cotts may have to make it because he's the only lefty in the pen, though I wonder if the Cubs will perhaps trade Vizcaino, Angel Guzman or Kevin Hart for a southpaw to take the spot that might otherwise go to Vizcaino. Except for the closer issue, I think the pitching staff looks good. I don't like Gregg as a possible closer, and he may not be as good a set-up man as Marmol, but he's an obvious upgrade from the fading Howry. Heilman didn't do well in the Mets' pen, but looks great this spring. Among the starters, Marshall is poised for a great year. Harden has been treated with kid gloves this spring and would probably be better as the sparingly-used fifth starter than Marshall.

There's no reason to expect anything worse or better than 2008 from the other three: Zambrano probably will be good between his implosions, Dempster may fall back a bit, but has now proved himself as a starter, and Lilly is still the most reliable pitcher the Cubs have.

What this all adds up to when throw in another utility man here and there (Micah Hoffpauir, maybe Sam Fuld or Jake Fox) is probably a first place team--but not by much. Lee's bat could become a concern, and Soriano, who supposedly will be running more this year, will have to be watched closely. Theriot and Fontenot right now look better than last year, and Bradley is a real threat is he stays healthy. No reason to expect Soto to drop off, and Fukie will either bounce back or be a non-factor by May.

My prediction for the Cubs is first place, maybe 90-72. At worst, I think they'll get the wild card if Milwaukee, St. Louis or Houston manages some magic. My hope is for a World Series, but as good as the team looks, I don't think they look any better prepared for a best-of-five play-off series than they were last year. That doesn't mean they won't do it, but if there's a reason that they can do it this year after going 0-6 in the postseason the last two years, Lou and his players may need to rummage around in their own heads to find it.

Don't got Wood

I'm checking in for the first time in more than a month because yesterday was such a significant day for Chicago baseball: Kerry Wood will be leaving the Cubs, after GM Jim Hendry declined to pursue a contract with him. It's not totally surprising because even if Wood would (heh-heh) have settled for less than market value to stay in Chicago, he would have commanded a multi-year deal that wouldn't have made sense, given Carlos Marmol's apparent readiness to be the closer.

The Cubs also traded once-ballyhooed minor league pitcher Jose Ceda to the Marlins yesterday for Kevin Gregg, who is now the Cubs' closer insurance if Marmol isn't ready. At least, I'm assuming that will be the case, and not that Gregg will be given the closer job out-right. If Gregg is presumed to be the new closer, the Cubs just downgraded slightly, as Gregg walked twice as many men as Woody did last season (36 to 18) in about the same number of innings (68.1 to 66.1). I do worry about Marmol's emotional readiness. Part of Wood's successful transition to closer was that he became very cold-blooded early last season, a state which was never more apparent than when he paralyzed Prince Fielder with that well-placed curveball on Sept. 16 to end a 10-pitch at-bat and the game. That had to be one of my favorite moments from last year.

Wood will be missed, especially if he does well somewhere else--and that could even be in the Central Division, with Milwaukee and St. Louis both wondering who their closers will be. Wood had such a star-crossed career here that some may say the Cubs and Wood should have parted ways sooner. Say what you want about his durability, but ultimately, Woody has reached the postseason four times in 10 years as a Cub, and that's how I will choose to remember him.

The next question is, what will the Cubs do with the money they may have saved by cutting Wood loose. The talk about Peavy has been intriguing. Will the Cubs pull off a trade that may involve Dempster and then fish for another free agent starter? We'll see.

On the other side of town, the White Sox traded Nick "Dirty 30" Swisher and minor league pitcher Kanekoa Texeira to the Yankees for two minor league pitchers and Wilson Betemit, who a multi-position Mark DeRosa type. That could mean Juan Uribe won't be back, though we have all heard that before.

Betemit is a good acquisition, though he has never really fulfilled his promise as a hitter. If you look at Swisher's stats from last season, you have to say the Sox got a great deal, but many observers, SBW included, think Swish will rebound in '09. It's a little disconcerting the Sox also shipped Texeira, who was unhittable last year at A and AA. The Sox received two somewhat more experienced hurlers in Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, but neither seems to be a real stand-out.

The Sox had earlier picked up one-time Rockie Jayson Nix to press Chris Getz at second base. Nix actually lost the starting job in Colorado last year and went to the minors, but he's decent hitter and has the speed asset Ozzie highly valued by the Sox. Other news we've all heard: Junior Griffey and Toby Hall are gone, and center field remains open.